In the church's latest plea for donations, they stated they now have 68,700 full-time missionaries. Given the current overlap, that kind of makes sense although that's an increase of nearly 9,700 missionaries from what they reported in conference just two months ago, a 16% increase. I guess it's possible now that school is out and this is the peak season for young men to go out right after graduation... What I call bullshit on is the claim that by fall, they'll have 85,000 missionaries. 85,000 from 59,000 is a 44% increase in just six months! Anyone else find those numbers incredibly suspect? I'm guessing that with many other "statistics" the church provides, they're fudging their numbers in an effort to guilt more members into donating...

No, the numbers make sense.

The term of missionary service is 2 years. Previously, the age floor was 19 years. Now, it's 18 years.

Thus, everyone presently between the age of 18 and 19 that would have gone at age 19 is probably putting papers in. That'll be roughly a 50% uptick distributed over a year.

However, this is a temporary state of affairs. Within the next year, people will just start putting in their papers at age 18. There won't be the population of 18-19 year olds that all of a sudden are eligible when they previously were not.

Long-term, guarantee almost all of the increase in missionaries will come from the women who will go out. The only marginal increase they'll see among the men are those who would not have gone at 19 but will have gone at 18. I suspect that's not actually a whole lot.

Long-term, many women will come back with tales of the mission being awful. Women tend to be more emotional -- and a mission is not a positive emotional experience for many.

This. Though the change to 18 does open the door to an annual surge in missionary numbers to give them something to boast about at Fall conference.

When the age was 19, they were able to kind of stagger their in-coming missionaries out throughout the year, as some would try and get a semester or two of college in before putting their papers in. With the current age, young men in H.S. have to wait until after they graduate from H.S. before they can head off to the MTC. So each June, there will be a huge rush of new missionaries at the MTC, and there will be a big group of missionaries returning. That's not to say that you won't have groups of older missionaries going out during the academic year, but they've really set themselves up to have their biggest surge in June.

There is a huge increase in Women (girls) going out now. That is making for a large spike.

85 grand sounds possible.

The normal summer peak + 18 year old men + a lot more women.

My Ex and I co-own one for women that we've had for decades, when we were both TBMs. I'm seriously wondering how many empty slots will be left for Fall.

Somebody's probably said this before, but maybe there's so many people leaving the church from their internal numbers, they want a surge in converts to cover them until they can figure out a way to get the yearly growth rate up again (the real one, not the one they report). Past a certain percentage for believability, they can't fudge the numbers anymore.

I just think it's sad, where for these Mormon kids they've gone through a lifetime of indoctrination and 4 years of seminary, and now the church decides they don't even get one year of freedom before they head off on a military-discipline like mission. All probably so the leaders can look good on the yearly membership growth numbers at conference.

Do the LDS church leaders really want to say the Lord changed his mind on the age when thousands of kids should go on missions, with no respect towards their individual circumstances or wishes or lifeplan? If not, why should these kids go at a certain age just because of a business policy decison? These 18 year olds should say, no, I'll go at 19 or 20 or whenever I want to, because it's my life and my decision at what age I want to volunteer any of my time.

Also, the age change gives kids less time to research the true history of the church without being in the family's living room, under the watchful eye of true-blue parents.

These kids will be less prepared for their missions. They will not have experience with living away from home. They will feel even more social pressure with the recent push for younger missionaries. It WILL backfire. I hope for an increase of early RMs who leave the church, perhaps double the regular amount (I wonder what that number is?).



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/04/2013 09:55PM by earlyrm.

The focus will shift away from growth in membership to growth in missionaries.

I wonder if some of the bigwigs are thinking as follows:

1. Get more mishies and converts from the SURGE that's in-progress with the age drop to 18 and 19.

2. 13 new essays hit lds.org

3. Millions spent on "Search Engine Optimization" (SEO) help users of google.com, bing.com, etc. find their way to lds.org rather than some evil place like exmormon.org.

On #3 they are kidding themselves that this will make the difference. Once a member becomes well-exposed to the issues they tend to demand answers OR become cynical if none are forthcoming.

Their numbers are exploding because they are sending 2 cohorts at once.

The 2012 HS graduating class would be heading out this summer, but they are already out. The 2013 class would go next summer, but they are leaving now.

Since 2012 went out early, they will be coming home early, the same time as the class of 2011. When you sent out 2 cohorts at a time, 2 come home at the same time.

Two years after this program begins, the numbers will fall back to normal. The only possible exception are sister missionaries, who are more likely to go now than they were before.

I've heard some crowing about 80,000 salesm...oops, I mean missionaries, and what a miraculous sign this is. Personally, I think it's a shame that so many families are going to go through this, but on the upside, it'll soon show how uninspired the CEO's really are.

It will be interesting to see if there's a big cultural shift in the church with larger numbers of women being RMs. Will they come home more committed to the church, but less likely to put up with bullshit under the guise of 'priesthood leadership?' Will they be more likely to leave after they get home? Will they demand equal rights?

I think the church is counting on binding young women to the church through early temple/mission experiences, but it may backfire in a big way.

Expect a major baby boom in about 2 or 3 years for the LDS community! Also, this kind of aligns the church with their "we're mainstream christians!!!" agenda, because they'll have women getting married a whole 1.5 years later. It makes them a bit closer to the norm.

ALSO! I have no stats to base this theory on, but I believe that men are more likely to leave the church because they have more responsibility in the Church, which pushes them to have stronger faith, or less! Many YW are excited, but when they get out there, they'll be disappointed because it's so hard, and maybe some doubts will enter their minds. The mission pushes you to the wall of faith, and there you must make your stand.

....And then you realize, this wall is made of paper.....
....I guess faith wasn't that important after all!



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/04/2013 10:05PM by earlyrm.

Why don't we email foreign governments explaining why we think it is dangerous to allow these type of missionaries into their country. It really becomes our responsibility to inform governments and people everywhere of the false promises they are giving to their people. Plus, they will see more of their citizens going into poverty and paying less in taxes that support social services due to tithing and an increase in fertility. It will also lead to a loss of cultural identity and other social problems from having another religious group within the community. Besides it is a proven fraud!



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/05/2013 12:08AM by orange.

Didn't giving missionary money directly to the church make it so that parents could deduct it as charitable giving on their taxes? Maybe that's why parents aren't super attentive to how the church uses it.

18 year old girls will leave because of the nasty, nasty garments. Don't underestimate the power of vanity.

Add to the temple garments a cultish masonic based temple ceremony attended one week before reporting to the MTC. I'm sure this will cause a few, "WTF was that?"

Yes, indeed.

...and 147% uptick of annoyed residents who answer the door worldwide.....

The number of children of TBMs I know who are going on missions or already left because of this reduction in age: 10. And I've been out of the morg for over 16 years. Can you imagine knowing a high school class of students leaving together? The numbers are boggling. I can't even imagine what a nightmare those current missionaries will have training in three-somes and finding places to live. The MPs? Who wants to be a mission president now? No way. Too much, too soon. Disaster will strike but the media won't be privy to any of it.

Business analysis: the increase in Salesmen will lead to increased sales, utlimately leading to increase profit for the organization.

The big boys have studied this for awhile I'm sure. Their market surveys must lead them to believe they will retain more YM and YW by eliminating the one year gap where sons and daughters may find the truth away from parent's guiding hand/eye.

Personally, I'm betting this rebounds on them. As more returned missionaries leave the fold, more will be emboldened to do likewise.

Also, I'm betting the surge is going to produce a cluster-fuck in the mission field with fewer mature individuals available to herd the rest. Dipshit Zone and District leaders are going to turn more missionaries off than ever before. Mission Presidents are going to find themselves double-timing to find apartments/living space for the newbies as well as handle a bunch of homesick kids on their own for the first time ever without access to mom or dad for comfort. No going home for the weekend to a home-cooked meal like in college.

Cramming a bunch of youngsters together in cramped quarters is a recipe for disaster...I hope a large number of these new missionaries show up and after a few months of no success and living in squalor, find the balls to bail out.

The more I look at it, the more I'm convinced that lowering the missionary age and trying to get so many more in the field is, as so many here have said, meant to staunch the hemorrhage of young people from TSCC. This has nothing to do with new converts. I'd say new converts are negligible nowadays--at least in the internet-connected world, from what everyone here says. The only people being "converted," as so many eloquently say, are the missionaries. The increased sales force isn't to sell but to make sure the salesmen themselves remain brand loyal... and have good, big Mormon families and at least keep TSCC growing through births.