s4711 logged out
Date: April 16, 2013 05:53PM
Depending on the publicity surrounding this issue and the response of mainstream, TBM Mormons to this movement, I am on the fence about whether or not they will attempt to excommunicate her or not.
On the one hand, it would be a simple matter for the Corporation to ex her and deliver a "fatal" blow to the movement (sending a strong message to less vocal supporters that this kind of agitation is unacceptable).
However, it isn't September 1993 anymore. The Internet has made public figures of too many within the community (including Tom Phillips) to ex her without repercussions. The media would also shine an intense spotlight on it, for a host of reasons. I think the Corporation would prefer to avoid scrutiny if at all possible.
Therefore, they may simply make small concessions (like "allowing" women to pray at GC, for example) without addressing the more substantial requests of the Mormon feminists (ordaining women and/or concessions like those requested in this document: http://whatwomenknow.org/all_are_alike/
As for what orthodox, TBM Mormons think about--if my MIL is any indication, she supports it (but would not agitate for it). I am surprised at the readiness of orthodox Mormons to accept it (of course, I'm just getting anecdotal reactions from a small sample population). However, if they are any indication, then there is some degree of support for it even among TBM's. These women wouldn't react negatively if women weren't ordained anytime soon, but I think they would react with some disappointment if Kate Kelly were excommunicated over this issue. (see here for a poll by the Daily Herald about this issue: http://www.heraldextra.com/news/opinion/editorial/herald-poll-women-and-the-priesthood/article_11076cf4-94a9-11e2-aca1-001a4bcf887a.html
That leaves the Corporation with just a few options:
excommunicate her, and potentially suffer the consequences
discredit Kate Kelly and excommunicate her for something else (like ambiguous "inappropriate relations with someone other than her spouse" or something)--I think there is a precedent for this kind of thing (see Simon Southerton) and is much more likely if the Brethren feel threatened
defy the movement and possibly suffer some consequences
do nothing and probably nothing will happen as a result (safest route)
I don't see the Brethren doing anything unless they feel threatened, in which case it would be safer and easier to smear her and then excommunicate her or disfellowship her (which would have a similar effect to simply excommunicating her without all of the nasty fall out of excommunicating her for apostasy for her "faithful agitation".