http://www.forbes.com/sites/frederickallen/2012/06/19/thats-all-folks-why-the-writing-is-on-the-wall-at-microsoft/

"To understand how this happens, take a look at the work of Arnold J. Toynbee, a historian who studied the rise and fall of civilizations. He argued that a civilization flourishes when it motivates insiders and attracts outsiders with its creative dynamism and culture. The civilization breaks down when its leadership loses this creative capacity and gives way to, or transforms itself into, a dominant minority. When this happens, the driver of the civilization becomes control, not attraction. And it’s precisely this switch from attraction to control that is the source of the breakdown. Interestingly, Toynbee says that the consequences may not be immediately apparent. A civilization can keep up momentum because the controls it puts in place generate some short-term efficiency. But eventually it will run its course and collapse, because no amount of control can replace the loss of collective creativity."

The Mormon church lost its creative dynamism with the death of JS. The leadership have no creative capacity. They rehash old stories and quote scripture written by their founder instead of creating new scriptures as true apostles and prophets should, the leadership is focused more and more on control. The best and brightest are leaving in droves, abandoning the failed promise of Christ's imminent return promised by JS. Realizing that their belief system cannot stand up to scientific advances and archeological discoveries. The church is focused primarily on short-term efficiencies to keep everything going. Members cleaning chapels, calling members on "service" missions to perform jobs for the church's for profit corporations, but in the end they will not be able to regain their past growth and will ultimately collapse.

I find this information interesting.
When I first left the church I kept telling some members that the church was in big trouble, and they would never be able to overcome the wave of desertion that was happening as was going to continue to happen. They kept asking me why I thought that. I couldn't articulate why I thought that. I just did.

This information puts it into perspective. It's what I was thinking, but didn't have the words or information to back it up with.

Not to jump into conspiracy theories or anything like that, but I actually think that good old Tommie Monson will do whatever it takes to save Mormonism; including falsifying revelations, visitations, academic research, and more.

I say this because just yesterday, as I was reading articles and comments over at SLC tribune's web site, some dude starts spouting off about a new study in the news about the dangers of coffee; his claim was that since coffee has now been proven to be bad for the human brain that Joseph Smith must have been an inspired prophet. I thought to myself, "Well, this should be interesting, I mean coffee has been shown to have beneficial effects on the brain like helping to reduce chances of alzheimers disease." So, I clicked the link, read the article, and after I finished, my curiosity instanly turned into rage. Let me explain why. The article explained, that a doctor conducted 'research' on the effects of coffee on the human brain by testing ONE PERSON, that's right, just ONE PERSON; SAMPLE SIZE of ONE! So, for the experiment, the test subject drank coffee, and then was placed in an MRI machine to record the results of coffee on the brain. The results of the MRI proved that coffee had reduced oxygen to the test subject's brain by something like 40%.

Now, anyone with half a brain would understand that this is NOT a scientific study, it proves absolutely nothing, it's like me killing an old lady by punching her and then saying punching is bad because all punches kill people, so we then force the government to outlaw punching; yeah, no, science doesn't work this way. However, this didn't matter to the TBM who posted the link to the study; this kid was fighting tooth and nail to convince people that Mormonism is great becasue Joseph Smith had a revelation that we shouldn't consume coffee.

Although I have no evidence that this study was sponsored by the Mormon church, but it did strike me as odd that something so stupid and non-scientific would be published NOT just on some bozo's blog, but on a major new's organizations web site. Also odd, is the fact that this study is new and just so happens to support the Joseph Smtih's revelations.

The point of this story is that I bet Tommie Monson and his gang are more than capable of pulling off a completely ridiculous campaign just like this coffee bit, where it proves absolutely nothing to those who understand simple statistics, but to the non-statistics/math/thinking person, this type of study proves Joseph Smith was a true prophet.

Well said, Helemon. From what I've read, early Mormonism was rife with people who had visions and dreams. Divining rods and astrology and speaking in tongues were just part of it.

Now it's only about obedience and following rules. Whatever dynamic energy Mormonsim had, it's long gone now.

Yeah, it is...the most recent GP books tell new members that astrology is something of the Devil. Funny, huh?

How can the church continue to grow with top-down management? Plus the fact that they don't take responsibility for any problems. This means people at the bottom have no control and take all the blame.

Local wards don't control the tithing they take in. It all goes to SLC and a mire pitance is given back. Tithing benefits SLC and Utah, so at what point do people outside the Morridor began to question this practice?

How can the church deal with local problems or customs? Consider the recent talk about Africans spending too much money on weddings and funerals. Do they really believe a talk by a GA from SLC is going to change age old customs half way around the world?

The church is not appealing to younger people. When you are use to instant gratification, 'enduring to the end' isn't a very uplifting message.

If the church wants to keep tight reins on its members, it will continue to get smaller and become more concentrated in the Morridor. I don't see a large world wide church with all the strings being pulled from SLC.

I don't think it's just about people being used to instant gratification. I know plenty of youth who are great at enduring to the end when the end isn't a vague, elusive thing. People go to the gym until they get fit. They go to college and get degrees. People spend years learning musical instruments.

But those "ends" are within their own control, so "enduring" means something. It's very different from what the church is promising.

Very true.

I'll endure to the end - but not if it's going to work against me (as in the Mormon church, since all of your work is not ever rewarded).

Toynbee's rise and fall scenario goes hand-in-hand with the arc of revolutionary movements laid out by Eric Hoffer in "The True Believer" -- a revolutionary movement led by a charismatic visionary, followed by a strongman who turns the movement into an institution, and then a series of caretaker leaders. There might be spikes in institutional zeal and growth during the caretaker phase, but the the main goal is no longer revolution but, rather, preserving and growing the institution. The forward-looking radicals are long gone, replaced by backward-looking preservationists faced with the problem of moving into the future while holding onto the past. Since the caretakers are products of the institution, not the revolution, their solutions always center around the institution, not the followers. Tweak the institution, expand its reach and control, etc. But that can work only so long before the followers' revolutionary fire burns out or the institution becomes a status quo to be rebelled against, just like the original revolutionaries rebelled against the status quo of their day.

Revolution-based institutions can extend their lives by morphing into something different under the same name. Mormonism has done that before, but can it do it again -- in a way that makes a difference, that pumps new energy into the movement? I don't see it happening with the old wheezers in charge now. Maybe desperation will move them, but I don't see any revolutionary ideas coming out of them, or charismatic leaders on the horizon.

I don't think ChurchCo is on its death bed yet, but it certainly has some chronic and worsening health problems.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/21/2012 08:49AM by Stray Mutt.

When an institution's stagnation threatens to lead to its demise a truly radical cure is needed. The problem with radical cures is that they are also potentially terminal. What sort of radical rejuvinating cures are available to Mormonism? Might they reinstitute polygamy, blood atonement? Are they going to dramatically "save the constitution" or go back to Smith's old dream of instituting a theocratic monarchy? How 'bout a President with a patriarchal blessing that puts him in the tribe of Judah and the line of David with a claim rivalling Yosef Dayan's to the throne of Israel?

Those are the sort of radical proposals that would be required to revitalize Mormonism, but those are also the sort of revelations that would jeopardize the continued existence of the Morg. That's just part of living on the edge as Joseph Smith did. He was willing to gamble all on a revelation that might just and sometimes did fly like a lead balloon. I don't see the old line cadre of current Mormon businessmen willing to take such risks with their corporation.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/21/2012 08:47AM by Stray Mutt.

Boiling water for coffee and tea would have been a lifesaver in Nauvoo and other places where the saints were dying from the common micro-organisms found in swampy water.

Fail.

Also the ban on alcohol, hot drinks and tobacco were inspired in part by the temperance movements that were becoming popular in several areas, churches and auxilliary groups of the day.

The revelation in D&C was given well before the 20th century.

The word of wisdom was not enforced until the 20th century.

Either way, the saints were getting sick from the water. If JSjr was so inspired and ahead of his time, why didn't he know this? Why would he get a revelation on health that if enforced immediately, would have caused more sickness?

Slightly off topic, it always annoys me when people try to blame wickedness for the collapse of Rome. Rome was the most thriving empire of the ancient world, while they were all Pagan. They only started to collapse after they all found Jesus.

hen there was the problem of Rome's economic model being heavily dependent upon the spoils of war, because stealing food, materials resources and labor is cheaper than buying it. Things became increasingly unsustainable as they ran out of new places to plunder. ChurchCo is also dependent upon plundering the membership, so we can guess how that will turn out.

Under the old Pagan system, every man had a duty to the State. Under the Christian model, man's duty was to God. Add to a system were Christian morals promoted the feeding of the needy, without question of their ability to feed themselves, then you see the problem.

However, while I feel that overly broad welfare systems are unsustainable, I am still in favor of well regulated modest systems.

They need a system like they've had since the beginning in which information flows only from node to node within the leadership hierarchy. That closed network is now in serious peril with the internet. Information can now flow between any two nodes on the network and under the cover of anonymity.

They need to drastically change their "business model" to minimize losses. Too many of the COB oligarches are drinking the koolaid to make that happen any time soon.

A fascinating book first published in the 1960s called "Religions of the Oppressed" by Vittorio Lanternari. He examines over 200 "new" religious movements of the last couple of centuries from all parts of the world.

His thesis is that new religions arise in response to social and economic oppression. He says that they begin with a charismatic "prophet," who attracts followers. When that founder is gone, the movement is taken over by a successor who lacks the charisma and prophetic abilities, but is an "organizer." The movement then loses steam, and concentrates on control and retention of members, and loses sight of what brought it into being.

Although he does not include Mormonism among the religions he studied, I saw his analysis appropriate to Joseph Smith the prophet and Brigham Young the organizer.

I'd argue that the church was pretty dynamic in my youth (circa David O. McKay). The control in SLC was relatively light and each ward and stake got to do a lot of creative things. I think it's really correlation (the tight control) that destroyed Mormonism.

Of course, maybe it's more an ebb and flow thing and the church has occasionally had periods of dynamism. Can it ever do it again? Probably not when the leadership is so geriatric (no offense to us geriatric types).

I don't agree that the Mormon Church is on the verge of collapse. Maybe slower growth, but not collapse. There is no real evidence that it is collapsing -- you certainly can't say it is collapsing based on the attendance at wards in the United States. There are still many multi-generational Mormon families that remain active and at least in my area there is a steady stream of converts some of whom are staying active. There are always people going inactive and reactivating. There will always be a percentage of the population attracted to Mormonism for whatever reason.

If this organization wishes to remain relevant, and to attract new members in the industrialized world it will need to offer something that people want, and to drop the rigorous demands regarding the foundational narrative as a test of worthiness since those foundations are easily disproved.

It would be nice to see the church collapse, and it would serve them right, but I seriously doubt it will do more than spawn newer offshoots as the true believers begin trying to get it back on track.

In the meantime, they get nothing from my family, and I can't imagine any of my descendents falling for it...at least not for the next couple generations.

You've hit it Helemon!

The church of Joseph Smith is a million miles away from today's remnants.

Smith seemed to a have a revelation every other day. It seemed God could hardly shut up. But today there is a conspicuous silence in the face of monumental problems. Global warming. When does life begin? Genetic engineering. Stem cell technology. ...Why aren't we hearing God's word again? That was the whole great idea originally.

Instead, today we are hearing dire warnings about earrings and tattoos.

Control is everything now -- creative thinking is a threat.

For the members of the LDS inc at the time of Joseph they had something new coming out virtually on a monthly basis. Joseph Smith was going against the tide of traditional opinion and was rocking people's worlds theologically and rocking women's worlds in bed.

The man was as dynamic as one could be. As has been stated above..it's just now wash, rinse, repeat.

Two comments:

1. Mitt. When the economic collapse comes, he'll turn a bad situation into a living hell. That's how he's wired.

2. The stone that was cut without hands will roll over all of Babylon, including Mormonism. Crunch bye bye.

Don't tell me Mormonism isn't joined at the hip to Babylon. By their fruits shall ye know them. No offense.

Very interesting, but I would argue that the creative aspect continued until it was stomped out by correlation.

As a convert in the seventies and eighties, we still awaited prophetic utterances and eagerly looked forward to conference, where we would hear the statistics and hear the reactions of the brethren to current events. There was the unexpected crazy person objecting to the sustaining of the prophet, the feminists, who might do anything, and you had a dynamic environment.

We gave lessons in which we were free to bring in anything from the outside and we could add our own experiences, in fact, when I was called to lead the Young Women, I was specifically asked to tell about my personal experiences as examples of gospel principles. We created amazing games and activities for the children in Primary and we LOVED doing it. I loved being Cultural Refinement teacher in Relief Society and had so much fun and learned so much myself.

All gone.

IMHO, the last real "prophet" who believed it himself was David O. McKay. He didn't try to win consensus with the other GA's, he believed he was the man with God's lips in his ear. Just look at a photo of him compared with a photo of Harold B. Lee. I say there's quite a difference, Lee being the bringer of the arm of flesh and the wisdom of mammon in the form of the Business Model.

Mormonism is on the verge of collapse for many reasons, like a dying ocean. If I had to pick one reason, it would be that they themselves now know that the church is NOT run by revelation, that the Book of Mormon is NOT true, that Jesus is NOT coming again and everything they are doing these days bears testament to their true beliefs.

For example--why a long term investment in a retail mall if it is really the end times?

Why build a massive tower for missionaries when they are supposed to cover the globe on foot and by bicycle with their personal testimonies until Jesus comes?

Why say the Book of Mormon's power comes from the fact that it has so much of the Bible in it if the BOM is the most perfect book ever written and the Bible is not translated correctly?

You get the idea. The myth cannot be perpetrated with the internet in place and they are scrambling to replace it with correlated protestant ho-hum. And stop being such a peculiar people--it cuts into revenues.

Anagrammy

Here's the loophole though....Mormons believe that in the "Last Days," even the elect of the elect will fall away. It's in Mormon prophecy that the church is going to get smaller and smaller, so this is just a "sign" to them.

How do we get around that one when talking to Mormon apologists and believers?

Refer them to religions of old. Every single modern religion in the history of humanity has had this meme. It's the inoculation that keeps the believers believing.

They're a Corporation, and a Corporation will do anything it has to do to survive.

And yet, they grew surprisingly well in the 1960's -70's, a full 160 years after the death of it's creative force. I'ld like to hear the knell for the MORG as much as anyone else, but it'll have to be more convincing than that.

a Falling Out from someone at the Top could do it.

Rather than theological or spiritual creativity, it was institutional creativity -- sort of Brigham Young 2.0. It was the time of the corporatization of the church, a.k.a Correlation.

Also, the big wave of baby boomers moved into adulthood during that period. More adults means more people to keep the system running, like more bees in the hive.

I believe that JS didn't want anyone drinking coffee because it was believed (then and by some people now) that coffee helps one sober up.
Why would JS want to sober up? He wanted to remain drunk. It helpd his revelations/hallucinations (whatever you want to call them.)