Hi all - I posted some information on church membership statistics and found some interesting information when comparing published mortality rates with the decline in membership published by the church. I'd appreciate any feedback regarding the issues. See below for a link:

https://sites.google.com/site/mormonismandbeyond/membership-and-attendance

So...

The published membership numbers, year to year, show for 2011, 14 million and something.

Each year the increase in membership would come from births (children of record) and converts.

Each year the decrease in membership would come from deaths, excommunications, resignations, etc.

Each year the "membership decline" (births plus converts subtracted from the current year membership minus the previous year membership numbers) is less by 20 thousand or so from the expected number of deaths.

So we aren't dying at the same rate as others or the membership clerks in wards are not putting into the computer the deaths when they occur. AND/OR some other stuff, not counting resignations, etc.

I was a wark clerk twice. A couple of times I remember someone dying and I killed them off in the records, but I don't think that is happening all the time.

Anyway, yea, the numbers are inflated, and seem to get progressively inflated year by year given that some things are not getting recorded accurately...deaths, resignations, etc.

So the church, in terms of living, baptised, members might really be....9 million? In terms of living, baptised, and goes to church 3 times a year might be 3 million?

What are your guesses?

The increase in membership would also come from children of converts that are less then 8 at the time of baptism and recorded on the records of the church.

The decrease in membership should also include unbaptized children age 9 or above that had been on the records previously, but there's no way to verify that this group is actually being removed from Total Membership and when they are is so.

The membership decline is less than expected even when ONLY measured against expected deaths, but when you consider that the decline should be much higher than the expected deaths number due to resignations, and unbaptized children age 9 and above, the difference will be much, much more than $20k. Unfortunately there's no way to verify since the church doesn't publish these numbers. (conveniently)

You may be onto something by saying that the membership clerks aren't removing the records from the system when people die. Perhaps that's happening in many wards, however, when I was ward clerk in the past, we'd always update the record in the system when someone died because of hometeaching, visiting teaching implications. Even inactive members that died were eventually updated because of reach out efforts every six months to a year.

Its difficult to say what the true membership numbers are but your guesses may end up being closer to the truth...

My understanding is that they keep the names on the records until they reach 120 years old, at which point you are presumed dead. But do they keep the names on when they know the person is deceased? It would help them maintain the illusion that they have those 14 million members when we all know the actual figure of active members is far less, giving them that fringe group look that they try so hard to avoid.

I've also heard that they keep the members on record until a predetermined age such as 110 or 120 and then presume them to be dead. Anyone know where this thought first came from? Any references from someone who worked at church headquarters or church leaders privy to this information?

You're right, it's 110.

It's all comimg out, how they have conned and deceived people for at least 100 years, not just on Joseph's Myths. Amen. Let it all fall down around the GAs', so they can take the money and run shoping malls and corporate farms.

They try to keep their inventory numbers inflated and their profit margins secret. Er, "sacred".

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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/20/2012 04:31PM by mormonveil.

If I remember correctly, there was a big jump in 1989, far surpassing the total of converts and baptized 8-year-olds. Obviously, they added some group they hadn't been counting before. Blessed children, perhaps? So it's possible they've changed whether they count unbaptized minors 9+ years old. I think with increased need to make the faithful think the stone is still rolling forth, ChurchCo is counting everyone and deleting very few of them. Or just pulling it all out of their asses.

One explanation for the oddly decreasing mortality rate might be the church's 110 year rule. As the percentage of inactive members increases (as I believe it is), then the greater the percentage of people not bothering to notify the church of someone's death. So more actually-dead people are kept on the records until what would have been their 110th birthday.

If something like 75% of the claimed members are totally inactive, then the "lost sheep" file would include most of the claimed members. I could be wrong, but I don't believe bishops, branch presidents or their clerks in places like Brazil, Guatemala, Philippines or Ghana are diligently updating the whereabouts of people they've never seen, who might have relocated or died or joined another religion.

I'm bad with numbers, especially figuring percentages and rates. Maybe the statistical wizards can run the numbers, comparing ChurchCo's claimed growth with global population growth. Is the church keeping pace?

It would be interesting to know how many "members" are actually in the "lost sheep" files. (not assigned a ward/branch) I suppose this could be a pretty large number and if so, would account for the large discrepancies... Anyone have an idea of how many individuals could be in this group?

Also, good point on ward clerk's not updating records. I know that when I was ward clerk, we sent any records that we couldn't locate back to SLC to keep the records clean and for hometeaching assignments implications. I'm not so sure this is done in all areas though.

The reported number of deaths/resignation e.t.c. besides being too low also change too from year to year. Unless there were some kind of recorded pestilence in 2003 why on earth would number of deaths suddenly double and then go back dramatically to lower levels the following years?

Statistics doesn't work that way. It's the opposite, the higher the numbers the lower the variability from year to year. And that includes number of resignations aswell. In a small cult of a few thousand you could perhaps expect dramatic apostasy some years and not others, but when you speak of an organisation with 14 million members that is extremely unlikely. In such a large organisation we expect members to resign in quite a steady rate.

brefots Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> In a small cult of
> a few thousand you could perhaps expect dramatic
> apostasy some years and not others, but when you
> speak of an organisation with 14 million members
> that is extremely unlikely.


Maybe you've just stumbled upon the big secret: there are actually only a few thousand members. ;^)

Good point, but I suspect the variability in the numbers is due to changes in the way they report, or adding or subtracting groups that they never included before.

More data suggesting that the membership numbers are decreasing rather than increasing. (as reported) Added column showing the increase in the number of congregations slowing dramatically while number of members per unit increases dramatically.

Updated link to membership and Attendance statistics page:

https://sites.google.com/site/mormonveil/membership-and-attendance