I said I thought it would be 2012 back in late 2010 because the presidential race would ferret out some of the remaining boils on the rump of Mormonism and air them in public.

My wish list included

*Baptizing dead Jews (lack of respect for other faiths)
*Old temple ceremony including death threats (coercive)
*Patriarchal Blessings (fortune telling)
*Selling of Temple Admittance (like selling of indulgences)
*Missionary passport confiscation
*Forced financial disclosure of money laundering
*Loss of non-profit tax status due to bribery

For me, the tipping point is when the average member begins to be embarrassed to be a Mormon. We are hearing that here and there now that polls have confirmed a majority understand that Mormons have weird beliefs that involve the planet Kolob.

You?

Anagrammy



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/18/2012 12:42AM by anagrammy.

The tipping point, I think, will be when the amount of tithing collected is not enough to take care of and keep all of the ward buildings and mctemples scattered around the world. If members saw that the church was having to sell all of the buildings, they would start to lose faith and stop paying tithing. That would be the tipping point that could end Mormonism in the mainstream forever.

and I can still it becoming the Hundredth Monkey this year. It also helps that you said ferret.

the tipping point will be when in a hard concentration marment neighborhood, two or more families from houses on the same block can form their own nexus and community, integrating with another house two blocks away. When all these nascent communities become vital, there goes the neighborhood.

iow, when Peter and Molly and their brood can clearly see a better social alternative to what they already have.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/18/2012 01:55PM by scooter.

I think the tipping point came when an average member could easily access accurate information. It tipped in the past few years.

Remember when you were assessed a ward budget? It was pretty steep as I recall my dad telling me.

That fee was on top of Missionary, fast offerings, Temple fund, BofM and the rest of the obligated payments.

I see it coming back. My guess is the Morg had so much money at that time that they were embarrassed that they kept so much and returned so little so they dropped it.

I predict the Budget/building fund will come back.

SERIOUSLY LDS LURKERS.. TELL ME WHY TITHING ISNT ENOUGH?

The old cojcolds, she ain't what she used to be...

Newly baptized Mos are generally without financial means (poor) in South America etc. No more U.S. heartland professional types (doctors, lawyers, business types) So the tithing stream is thinning out, and the money they have now can't last forever.

So that will change things for the morg.

Word of wisdom goes out the window-- becomes optional, as does literal belief in the BoM.

A tipping point? I say thingsithink has it right. The morg tipped a while back. The folks in SLC are having the darndest time keeping Joseph's myth going. Thanks Google.

P.S. Didn't Jeffrey Holland give it that last little nudge that sent it over the cliff?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/18/2012 03:08PM by canadianfriend.

Holland, I keep thinking Fredo in the Godfather.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYabrQrXt4A

For me;

* Basing many of their doctrines on a made up creation account, that was further edited by Joe.

* The billions spent to build the "City Creek Mall" aka self contained emergency shelter for the rich Mormons.

* The spiritual irresponsibility

* Constant contradictions

And not a moment sooner. At some point tithing and other revenue won't cover current expense. That will be a pivotal moment, but they have very deep pockets. I am not holding my breath.

I'm with you on this one. It could very well happen, but it'll be well after our deaths.

Though Scientology has had a much smaller arc of development and decline, we may see something similar to its tipping point. This occurred just a few years ago when several leaders left the faith, and the remaining leadership focused on milking the remaining members of its dwindling flock as hard as possible before they left too.

In Mormonism's case, I think that the end might be in sight when the leadership begins to curtail the missionary program and the number of temples that are being built. These make economic sense as long as the number of members is increasing or, as now, holding its own. But the expense isn't worth the benefit if new temples aren't supported by new tithepayers, or if the missionary program becomes less efficient as a way to keep young men in the faith.

The Berlin Wall fell in 1989, but IMO, the real tipping point for the Soviet Union was 1980, when the Gdansk shipyard workers in Poland went on strike, and the government signed a labor agreement with them rather than bringing in the tanks to crush the strike. Once the Soviets were no longer willing or able to kill dissenters, they were only going to rule with the consent of the people. It was just a matter of time before the Soviet Union adopted to change or collapsed, and it that case it collapsed.

LDS Inc is not going to collapse IMO, but they are at best just barely holding their own, and may already be in slow decline. Personally, I think the internet and web browsers are the primary impetus for The Great Unravelling of Mormondom. Sonia Johnson, Mark Hofmann, The September Six, Hinckley's "I don't know that we teach that" interviews, Prop 8, and the Mittster all contribute, but it is easy access to information, and the knowledge that lots of other people are thinking it is BS too, that is their real undoing.

The tide of public opinion is changing. More and more people (especially the youth) are coming to accept homosexuals and gay marriage. I hear about how the (mostly LDS) high school youth react from my kids in high school. There ARE still haters, but the majority are starting to accept. My daughter debated the merits of gay marriage (as an assignment) in her high school English class, and won the class over. In Utah valley.

But the church has come down hard against gay marriage. I think that's got to be a huge embarrassment to tolerant LDS youth. As a child, I was embarrassed by the policy against the blacks holding the priesthood. It was wrong. I felt it, even if I didn't feel I could vocally disagree. But these days, kids say whatever they want. To their friends, and all over the internet.

And this issue could fracture the church. The young people are more tolerant, while the old ones keep spewing hate and intolerance.

The church came down hard on gay marriage, but has been softening as well. There is already a significant Mormon population that actually believes that Mormonism is gay tolerant and that it is ok to be Mormon and gay.

Does this remind you of anything else?

Mormonism won't fracture because of how quickly and easily it can change its doctrine.

They can, and often do change their doctrines and hope all goes down the memory hole. But this is getting harder to do in the age of the internet. Also, the more they change the doctrines that become problematic, the less of a church they become. Eventually all they'll have left is their culture. They've painted themselves in an ugly corner.

I don't think it is all that much harder. Books on how crappy Mormonism is have existed since the beginning of the religion. People used to pass out pamphlets and actively try to get true information about Mormonism out there to Mormons. This is not a new concept.

Brainwashed is brainwashed, and people who used to not look at "anti-Mormon" books are still not going to look at "anti-Mormon" websites.

The internet makes some difference, but not as much as we like to think.

I would say a pull back on the use of buildings and maintenance. A local missionary center, which was leased, was moved into a stake center. Maintenance cutbacks are widespread.

Could it be the ship is already listing?

The only tipping point that could be the end of Mormonism is getting caught by the government in some type of tax evasion in diverting funds from the "for profit" branch to the "church" branch to avoid taxes. The government declares the whole thing to be a business and revokes their church status and rights as a church. Anything less and the "church" will hang onto to a real number of few million members from now to eternity.

I kind of doubt that will happen. They have pretty good counsel and I doubt they'd risk such a thing when they've got plenty of money in their for profit arm.

I think what will happen is there will become an imbalance between what they take in in tything and what their upkeep costs are in their church side of the balance sheet. I *don't* believe they'll subsidize the religious side from their for profit side. And I think we're already seeing signs that it's begining to happen and has for a while -- hense no janitors, upkeep on the buildings, etc. They're not likely losing money yet on the church side of the books, but I see signs of wormwood.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/18/2012 08:33PM by Devoted Exmo.

I was a Mormon missionary in Finland 1974-1976. In 1975, the JW's went absolutely crazy with their end of the world beliefs. Many JW Finns quit their jobs, pulled their kids from school, and went full time into missionary work. Well, the world did not end. The Watchtower lost nearly a 1/3 of its membership over the next couple of years. It even had the appearance of complete collapse in the late 1970's. It has now fully recovered and is experiencing significant growth in most of the non-Western world and I have seen it grow here in east TN. The Watchtower and Bible Society has more active members than the Mormons. Cults adapt when forced to adapt. The majority of the members go mindlessly along. The new converts know little to nothing of any ugly history.

The Mormon church is morphing into an organization many of us would not of recognized 20 years ago. It is adapting in its own way. I believe its pushing the members to the wall for money, time and work will soon be modified into something more benign as it is clearly not panning out as the 15 believed it would. I am not sure what it will be, but it will continue to change or be changed by external forces.

I wonder what the numbers are like for the JW's in Finland today.

Edit to add: Roughly 19,000.

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/rel_jeh_wit-religion-jehovahs-witnesses

I think this says more about how backwards Americans are.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/18/2012 08:57PM by Devoted Exmo.

Yeah, but it is so much easier for people to believe that because they left Mormonism, everybody else will leave Mormonism. Projecting one's own experience is a serious pass time of many exmos.

But if I face reality,
I must admit that the morg isn't going away anytime soon.
I look at my tbm family,
and realize that they will hold on for dear life,
forever,
no matter what....
After all,
we lie best when we lie to ourselves...

I think they see us, their loved ones,
and aren't willing/strong enough to break away...
I'm not trying to dis them, I just think that the stakes are much too high
for many, many tbm members to even contemplate.
Let's face it,
not everyone has the need,
nor the strength/ ability,(marriage/children/mission/ancestry/etc.),
to break away.
I wish it wasn't this way,
and the dream of our loved ones
following us to freedom
is a lovely fantasy.
The reality, sadly, is that many, many people crave and need some type of
strict structure to live by.
It used to make me so angry and sad....

But we cannot change anyone but ourselves.
We can only try to do our best to live our lives in the most genuine and honest fashion we can,
and be available to love and support those who are able to break free.
We need to forgive ourselves, and move forward with our own lives, to the best of our abilities.

"I look at my tbm family,
and realize that they will hold on for dear life,
forever,
no matter what...."

I know what you are saying. Very well put.

:(

Wow... a.e. Nicely done!

The difference is, there's a whole new game in town since the 1970's.

Religions can no longer get away with sweeping history under the rug, or adjusting it to suit their needs.

There will always be some people who desperately need religion to cope. They will always support it.

The computer generation has a whole new spin on religion. They may listen to the mishey's, but will run to the computer as soon as they leave. They can know the good bad and the ugly before they ever set foot in the building. They can find out up front that the church is loaded with cash, but still demands their piddly 10% if they want the promise of heaven. Not so fast there mishey boys.

I was raised a JW from the age of 6 until I was 22 and suicidal from the age of 13 until I was 22. And yes, they shun too. That was the only family I ever knew growing up. It's a horrible thing for religions to rip apart families.

Hope you were able to create a family of your own and experience being a parent.

Ana

So how is Christian Science doing these days? I ask because a few years back someone had shown that Baker Eddy's own communications with God were plagiarized from 19th c books - verbatim. Not sure that affected her standing with that church very much.

In other words, I keep thinking the Morg has hit a tipping point - Hoffman was one - the Internet was another -- then it is like nothing happened. Teflon Church.

I guess it will come - but like another coming no one will know the day and the hour.

This thread illustrates the tipping in action.

http://exmormon.org/phorum/read.php?2,534266

I think the tipping point may already have passed, the landmark event/decision was the emphasis on temple building.

Here's my analogy - for good or bad, right or wrong: I'm an amateur astronomer, and I think the Mo Church is like the Sun. When the Sun's supply of hydrogen begins to run low - (hydrogen is needed to fuel it's nuclear engine) it will grow bigger, and bigger (to maintain nuclear fusion) and will eventually swallow Mercury, Venus, Earth.

The Sun's increasing size, circumference is really a sign of trouble. The Sun will grow size in it's attempt to fuse hydrogen and other elements to overcome gravity, it's enemy.

Eventually, the Sun's nuclear fuel/fuels will become exhausted, and will then become a Brown Dwarf, after nuclear combustion is no longer possible, and contract to the size of say, The Earth. Professional astronomers: please feel free to correct anything here.

The Mo Church is in it's expansion, Temple building phase. The Church, like the Sun, is running out of fuel, and so it's spending its resources on temples and City Creek to become "bigger". The Mo Church has it's own form of gravity - it's enemy, and that is Africa, non-tithe paying members, non-tithe paying new members, and decreasing size of it's legacy members- tithe paying members along the Wasatch Front.

The Church will explain that the increase in Temple Building is a reflection of it's popularity and increasing membership growth.

However, in keeping with the nuclear fuel metaphor of the Sun, increasing growth in the number of it's operating temples, is in fact a measure of it's dwindling influence and weakness.

The Mo Church believes that there is a positive correlation to the number of temples and tithing income.

While this may be true for the short term, the opposite is true in the long term.

The Mo's will last another couple of hundred years, and will then enter their own type of Brown Dwarf existence. (Brown Dwarfs will forever be hot, till the end of the universe's life. However, they will never again be able to start nuclear fusion once again, the definition of a main-sequence star. They will always be in existence - but will never be able to grow.

The Mos' will be exactly like their Missouri cousins, The Community of Christ, which is in fact a very minor Brown Dwarf, to continue the metaphor.

For those who have become worried about the Sun swallowing the Earth, please don't. This event won't happen for another 4 or 5 billion years.

Interesting metaphor Eastbourne - thanks.

it would be interesting to have Gladwell's thoughts on the tipping point of the church. IMHO I think it will come in phases, the first being the revelation that women are so discriminated against.This will cause some strife in the old men in Salt Lake. I think we all agree the internet has caused more tipping, especially when the average high school dude can now debunk virtually every aspect of what the church teaches. When the youth start to openly question, then it is only a matter of time. One other point that I dwell on these days,have you noticed that only the LDS church seems to have so many ex members that are so vocal about the church. What other religion has such a nasty ex members?

Hmmm...interesting topic. I am finding myself getting addicted to this site. Is this normal? :) My short-lived Mormon opinion is this, I don't see an end of Mormonism completely. They may go down (thanks to the internet) in some way, shape, or form, but there will be those members that keep it going. Is that not history repeating itself with the assassination of Joe Smith and others carrying on in his wake?

not for any of the regular posters on this board.

The Mormon church will dwindle as will all Christian churches into this century and the next. When Jesus does not return people will silently stop going, stop believing.

The Mormon church will just get too difficult to believe in shortly. The only ones to stay, and it will be a large number, will be those who don't like to think for themselves. But this will create problems as fewer management types will be available to fill the important positions. Larger wards, fewer in number, watered down doctrine, more boredom.