OT and non-political But frankly, I'm getting a bit concerned.

Is there anyone here who understands N. Korea's capability vs our ability to deflect their missiles?

The worst is, after years in the church, I don't even feel like putting up new supplies and stupid crapola we may never need.

Anything is possible, but I wouldn't worry about NK. Yes, they've been working on some scary shit, but so has our government to counteract. And, China isn't interested in seeing its cash cow--the American consumer--being put out to pasture.

I would be more concerned if I knew people in South Korea.

I am hoping LDS Inc has pulled their people.

Things could get bad there very quickly.

I doubt NK has the capacity (yet) to do something that long range. All commentators point out that its main concern is its survival by deterrence.

The graver worry is that other nuclear powers could come to NK's aid should the US and Korea get into a military conflict.

That could bring a regional war to our shores.

China has said it won't intervene and will remain neutral should NK strike a US territory or ally first. If the US does a pre-emptive strike on NK then China will come to NK's aid. It could quickly escalate into a major conflict very fast.

What we really need more than ever is cool and calm rational leadership - not loose lips.

Short answer:

The west coast of Alaska -- possibly.
Anywhere else on the west coast -- no. Not yet anyway.

http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/87150147-132.html

But not likely and worrying about it won't help.

Any attack by NK is concerning. We can take action to at least try to contain the saber rattling. When the two countries involved have crazy people in charge, I do not trust either country to do what is in its own best interest.

As far as the range of NK missile, here is an article regarding the evolution of NK ballistic missile program. Apparently NK may be able to strike as far inland as Denver.

http://exmormon.org/phorum/list.php?2

IMHO, if Trump undertakes a preemptive strike on NK, he is stupider than I thought.

http://www.raytheon.com/capabilities/products/ekv/
They can't yet reach the lower 48.
When they can, there is a good chance, if they were to launch, that the warhead never makes it to the ground.

I'm more worried about my state coming under attack from Washington DC.

donbagley Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I'm more worried about my state coming under
> attack from Washington DC.


I think I'm in the same state, and we don't exactly have favored status.

Thanks, guys.

Can't find the article now, but the other day I was reading BBC news and my understanding is that NK has been threatening to hit Guam but also saying that they have the capacity to hit NYC or Alaska.

However it is speculated that they are not quite there yet with their capacity to actually hit their target that precisely and also they do not (yet) have the capacity to miniaturize a nuke to fit on the missile.

But they may have both solved within a few years.

So still pretty scary. Esp. since the UN has hit them with every sanction they can think of for a long time now with no effect. (Cause their leader doesn't give a damn about his people, which is really sad that already impoverished people have to suffer more because of a nutcase dictator).

But they are dependent on China for their gas and other needs. So it sounds like China is on board with helping us out if it comes down to it. So if we stay friendly with China we should be good.

It does seem pretty stupid though, I mean if NK actually attacked us they know they would get some crazy retaliation right? I mean it seems pretty suicidal.

Also I read that our missile defense is not really what it is reported to be, so if they do develop the advancements they need to attack us it's possible that we may not have the capacity to defend ourselves.

Yes it's scary.. but hopefully it's empty threats.

China does not share our interests.

A nuclear NK is not its worst-case scenario. The worst case in Beijing's eyes is the collapse of NK, the movement of several million refugees across the border into China, and the expansion of SK power to the Chinese frontier.

A united Korea would be a major power, one that could threaten Chinese geopolitical interests. As Stalin once said about Germany, "I like Germany so much that I want there to be two of them." Applying that same logic, it is safer for China if the peninsula is divided into two weaker sates with NK serving as a buffer that extends China's geopolitical frontier further from Beijing.

Once you add the US presence in SK, that reasoning becomes even more compelling. The factor that motivated China's entry into the Korean War in 1950 was MacArthur's movement of US forces towards the Sino-Korean border, which is only a few hundred miles from Beijing. Imagine the strategic nightmares Chinese leaders would have experienced if the country's greatest geopolitical rival, under the unpredictable and insubordinate MacArthur, had a large force so near the capital. China's determination to keep the Americans far away remains operative today. Nor is this calculation wrong: imagine having US forces a few hundred miles from Beijing while they are under the mercurial Donald Trump is president.

Of course, NK is risking war and that has to concern Beijing. Kim Jung Un naturally understood that his policy would upset his larger neighbor, which is probably why his brother, Kim Jung Nam, whom China had for many years protected, met with an untimely end in April. He was visiting Malaysia when, in the airport, two women smeared poison on his face and ran away. Thus died Beijing's protege and the best hope for a new government should the Chinese have wanted to install one.

So Beijing has very little room to maneuver. It has stated that it will not intervene if NK attacks the United States. The unstated corollary is that if the US initiates a conflict, the Chinese will support the Kim regime. Again, China's primary goal is to preserve the NK state; to that end, it will do all it can to discourage both parties from resorting to military conflict.

I would add that Chinese neutrality may ultimately prove illusory. If NK were to launch an attack near Guam and the United States invaded or attacked NK in retaliation, Beijing might say that the US had started the war and then intervene. In wars, it's always easy to find a reason that the other guy started it. I'm sure the US government, if not the White House, knows that any Chinese promise of neutrality is highly conditional given Beijing's desire to keep the Korean Peninsula divided.

This, incidentally, is why Beijing didn't force NK to give up its nuclear program in the 1990s or 2000s. Even in 1994, when the Clinton Administration was edging towards full-scale military conflict with NK, Beijing refused to act. China has roughly the same amount of influence over Pyongyang now as it did then. Its geopolitical interests are also similar, which is why the US should not expect China to ride to the rescue.

Let's deal with Guam.

NK stated they plan to test launch 4 missiles with the goal of hitting a target area in international waters about 50 miles north of Guam.

We can never be sure if they'll hit the area or not. Most missiles have a Circular Error of Probability or basically they will fall close to the target. With nukes as in horse shoes, close is good enough.

What capabilities the NK has and how large their Circular Error of Probability is we don't know. Circumstances could cause a test missile to hit the island itself.

The latest missile could in theory hit the western US. But that is currently unproven. We simple do not know.

Now to scare the crap out of you. They also have ballistic missile capable submarines. In theory they could prowl off any coast and launch a missile almost anywhere with limited warning.

We don't know if they have miniaturized a warhead for these smaller missiles or not.

As for civil defense. Yes there are a variety of anti missile and anti submarine protocols. But nothing is perfect.

So as many of us learned over 50 years ago. If the missile hits you, you'll never know it. If it is near you, you'll wish it had hit you. If it is far away, follow instruction to avoid fall out.

Always remember, at the first sign of a flash, Duck and Cover!

As the old joke goes....If you "see the flash", find a comfortable spot to quietly sit down, place your head tightly between your legs, and kiss your ass goodbye.

I don't think Kim Jong Un is THAT suicidal.

Ignorance and stupidity knows NO bounds whatsoever... Canada??? What the hell? Only 36% of Americans can identify North Korea on a map. Here are people saying the USA should take military action against NK, yet they have NO clue where it is, much less any clue about the very serious issues at hand:

http://globalnews.ca/news/3659694/jimmy-kimmel-americans-north-korea-map/

IMHO, the most disturbing thing about the video seen here is the laughter and giggling. Truly, it's like they find being ignorant and uneducated something to laugh about, and even more so because they're on TV getting their 15 minutes.

To all the Dumb, Dumber and Dumbest people in this video and many others like them, look it up! I'm SURE there's an app for that. Just unbelievable. Wow.



Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 08/12/2017 05:11AM by cynful.

Yep. That video was cringeworthy. Apparently it was those same people whom Jay Leno interviewed during a "jay walking" segment who hate obamacare but love A.C.A.

This is TV so remember the huge selection bias. They want to show funny footage of idiots: anyone who knows the right answer is not going to get on screen.

We also don't know if they just have simple ballistic reentry warheads or more advanced reentry warheads capable of terminal guidance. It's not easy to hit an island from thousands of miles away on an unguided ballistic trajectory. That's why the first generation of ICBMS needed large payloads -- you needed a big bomb in the megaton range to destroy a target you could not hit precisely. North Korea's tests have been barely in the ten kiloton range. They also probably can't make tritium either...yet. With tritium gas you can boost a smaller atomic bomb to get the yield up.

NK might talk trash but they aren't stupid. Nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them are to them a deterrent to regime change. I'm more worried about them exporting the technology for cash to non-state actors or terrorists who don't have a return address.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/12/2017 10:29AM by anybody.

If there's a war, KJU will disappear from sight, only visible by video;

His life expectancy will = 0

Sorry left coast. It was nice knowing you.

Can Kim Jung Un hit the US with a nuke? I have no idea, but here are some facts to help you understand the situation.

North Korea has already launched a satellite into low earth orbit. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwangmy%C5%8Fngs%C5%8Fng-3_Unit_2

If you can launch a satellite into low earth orbit, then theoretically you can drop an object onto any part of the Earth that you want.

The problem is the size of the object that you want to drop. A nuke is probably heavier than a simple satellite, so it might not be able to go as far. Note, however, that the US government now believes that North Korea has developed a miniaturized warhead that will fit on a missile. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#2017

There are also questions about the reentry vehicle and ability to strike a precise point. Those could both be irrelevant if North Korea decides to detonate the warhead above the US and take out half the country with an EMP. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse

Any attack on the US is a death sentence for Kim Jung Un and North Korea, so they would probably only try if backed into a corner. But the capability might be there.

Can't believe we take this seriously. Kim is like a little kid that likes attention. And our media needs a regular crisis to keep up ratings.

One minute we're being threatened with destruction, and the next he's out partying with Dennis Rodman.

We do need threats to keep the military industrial complex going, though.

"It is part of the general pattern of misguided policy that our country is now geared to an arms economy which was bred in an artificially induced psychosis of war hysteria and nurtured upon an incessant propaganda of fear. While such an economy may produce a sense of seeming prosperity for the moment, it rests on an illusionary foundation of complete unreliability and renders among our political leaders almost a greater fear of peace than is their fear of war."

- General MacArthur