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Posted by: themaster ( )
Date: January 02, 2017 09:22PM

762 people were killed in the city of Chicago during 2016. That is a lot of people. It is like 3 or 4 Mormon Wards disappearing in one year. One large ward during the late 1970's. In the late 70's, I belonged to a Ward that had over 850 members.

Mormon Wards have been disappearing and TBM's do not seem to notice how many people are leaving. 762 people killed seems like a lot but compared to how many Mormons left the church during 2016, maybe it is a small number.

Any idea on how many Mormons quit attending in 2016?

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Posted by: Brother Of Jerry ( )
Date: January 02, 2017 09:39PM

Whoa. We already have a contender for "Best Non-sequiter of the Year", and it is only Jan 2. Impressive!


BTW, LDS Inc had one of its best years in a long time in stake creation in 2016. I'm not sure what is up with that. Perhaps they are making a huge effort to hang onto new converts. Or maybe they are just stretching stakes thinner. Whatever is happening, they do not appear to be blowing away just yet.

I do think this is just a short term spike, but we shall see over the next decade or so whether this is real growth or just goosing the moose.

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Posted by: [|] ( )
Date: January 02, 2017 09:59PM

From this link posted in another thread:

http://cumorah.com/index.php?target=view_case_studies&story_id=474&cat_id=8

"Several other indicators of LDS growth that strongly correlate to stake growth did not accelerate in 2016. For example, the Church reported a net increase of approximately 300 official congregations (i.e. wards and branches) during 2016. As the average stake includes seven congregations, the number of stakes would have increased by only 43 if the ratio of congregations per stake were maintained from 2015. Stake growth outpacing congregational growth in 2016 appears partially attributed to emphasis in North America regarding the organization of stakes with fewer wards and branches, particularly in Arizona and Texas. Furthermore, progress in local leadership in many areas outside of the United States has permitted the organization of stakes where the Church has historically operate few stakes such as in Asia. Although stake growth in 2016 did not correspond to “double-digit stakes every week of our lives” as initially reported by LDS apostle Elder Jeffrey R. Holland in April 2016, accelerated stake growth in 2016 signifies a major development in LDS growth trends worldwide. Time will tell whether similar growth trends continue into 2017 and beyond"


From this, it appears that a signififcant part of the growth in stakes comes from creating smaller stakes without an actual increase in wards or probably members either.

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Posted by: numbersRus ( )
Date: January 03, 2017 11:58AM

or, uh, wait, no.

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Posted by: severedpuppetstrings ( )
Date: January 02, 2017 09:50PM

themaster Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Any idea on how many Mormons quit attending in
> 2016?


I wouldn't know, but you can count me in as one of them!

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Posted by: Greyfort ( )
Date: January 02, 2017 10:04PM

Yikes! Toronto is about the same size as Chicago. Police were lamenting a 10-year high in the murder rate, at 69. WTH is with Chicago?

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Posted by: Jimbo ( )
Date: January 11, 2017 07:05PM

Chicago has a population that is about 33 percent black. Toronto has a population that is about 8 percent black. In the USA blacks are 13 percent of the population but commit 52 percent of all murders and almost all the time a black person murdering another black person .Now before anyone thinks or says Jimbo is a huge racist then you would be wrong .These are simply demographic and crime facts .

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Posted by: randyj ( )
Date: January 02, 2017 10:43PM

...a lot of others are dying to get away from it:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-illinois-population-decline-met-20161220-story.html

"The Tribune last year surveyed dozens of former residents who had fled within the past five years, and all offered their own list of reasons for doing so. Common reasons included high taxes, the state budget stalemate, crime, the unemployment rate and the weather. Census data released last year suggested the root of the problem was the Chicago area, which in 2015 saw its first population decline since at least 1990, having lost 6,263 residents."

I can testify that a lot of them are moving south.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/02/2017 10:44PM by randyj.

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Posted by: Dave the Atheist ( )
Date: January 03, 2017 11:54AM

so they're retiring and moving to warmer climates ?

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Posted by: randyj ( )
Date: January 04, 2017 02:30PM

"so they're retiring and moving to warmer climates?"

If they're of retirement age, yes. But a lot of younger people are moving from Chicago, and other northern areas because of the other things mentioned in the article such as crime, lack of jobs, and high taxes.

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Posted by: paintinginthewin ( )
Date: January 03, 2017 03:35PM

I wish we had a per capita direct comparison for Chicago's rate in the 1850s 1920s 1940s etc so we could have actual figures to was it actually more violent than ever

Mormon wards out of zion are composed of members self isolating scattered blocks floors even miles apart "gathered " contained in this area. That means most Chicago Mormons were being asked by their church to disregard and disconnect from all real in real life connections around them. By visiting from Zionsville elders, who mostly returned to neighborhoods and neighbors and dorm rooms full of company.

Anyone else see a problem with this? It is as if the Mormon is making a vicious request to converts: to disconnect from their roots tribe on earth, and stand alone in any city out of zion. (Which is Fairly brutal in my opinion; emotionally socially brutal- more brutal Beyond a murder rate in a very very large space.)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/03/2017 03:37PM by paintinginthewin.

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Posted by: ificouldhietokolob ( )
Date: January 03, 2017 08:23PM

paintinginthewin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I wish we had a per capita direct comparison for
> Chicago's rate in the 1850s 1920s 1940s etc so we
> could have actual figures to was it actually more
> violent than ever

We do!

http://www.encyclopedia.chicagohistory.org/pages/2156.html

Just for completeness, since that one ends at 2000:

Chicago's 2015 homicide rate (per 100,000), was 17.9 -- that was among the 5 *lowest* rates it had since 2004, and lower than any year from 1968-2004. It was also the 10th worst in the US in 2015, behind Detroit, New Orleans, and even Rochester, NY.

The 2016 rate was 28.2 -- a lot higher than 2015, but exceeded by 4 years in the 1990s, and still quite a bit lower than Detroit, New Orleans, etc.

http://ftpcontent3.worldnow.com/wfld/pdf/yale-sutdy-murder-in-chicago-andrew-papachristos.pdf

https://www.rit.edu/cla/criminaljustice/sites/rit.edu.cla.criminaljustice/files/images/2016-07%20-%20ComparisonofCitiesHomicideRatesOverTime-2016_Final.pdf

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Posted by: RPackham ( )
Date: January 03, 2017 05:02PM

I don't mean to be picky, but don't you mean "762 people MURDERED"?

A lot of people are killed - in accidents, fires, etc. - that is not the same thing as being a victim of murder.

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Posted by: themaster ( )
Date: January 03, 2017 11:22PM

RPackham is correct. I believe the 762 people murdered were killed by guns. Very high number since Chicago has some of the toughest gun laws. The correlation between how many Mormons are leaving LDS Inc and how many people are in a ward is interesting to me.

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Posted by: randyj ( )
Date: January 04, 2017 02:34PM

"I believe the 762 people murdered were killed by guns. Very high number since Chicago has some of the toughest gun laws."

Indeed. On the news a few nights ago, the Chicago police superintendent said that their strict gun control laws don't work.

http://www.everyjoe.com/2016/12/27/news/chicago-police-chief-admits-gun-control-isnt-working/

Gee, who'da thunk that gun control laws don't keep criminals from getting guns?

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Posted by: ificouldhietokolob ( )
Date: January 04, 2017 06:37PM

randyj Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Gee, who'da thunk that gun control laws don't keep
> criminals from getting guns?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_homicide_rate

Of the ten lowest-rate states, 9 have among the strictest gun-control laws in the nation.

Of the ten highest-rate states, 9 have among the least-strict gun-control laws in the nation.

Chicago is an outlier. And your premise (above) isn't supportable.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/04/2017 06:37PM by ificouldhietokolob.

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Posted by: thingsithink ( )
Date: January 11, 2017 12:50PM

Who'da thunk.

I'm reminded of the on-going thread about the difficulty people have changing their opinion when presented with facts that conflict with their self-identity. Well, I believe RandyJ did cling to Mormonism for quite a long time. He may cling to his unsupported ideas about guns for a while longer but he's shown he can let go of dogma - it just takes a long time. ;)

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Posted by: Chica ( )
Date: January 04, 2017 06:52PM

I live in Chicagoland.

The gun violence is most prevalent in certain neighborhoods that are full of gang activity. Not that that makes it any better. It's depressing to listen to the news on Monday and hear the death count from the weekend. The count this year is currently at 3 or 4 four, with actual shootings (not resulting in death) much higher. I've already lost count.

Gun laws are strict, but jail sentences are not. That's part of the problem. Offenders are quickly back on the streets, doing the same things.

Another problem is easy access to guns from neighboring Indiana. It's easy to pick up a load of guns at a gun show there and bring them to Chicago to sell to anyone who's looking for one.

Chicago has a lot of problems, with gang/gun violence at the top of the list.

Chicago is full of educated, happy, friendly, open-minded people. I love the diversity here and the access to world-class higher education and museums.

I hope we can figure out how to stop the gun violence and the dirty politicians!

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Posted by: Anonymous 2 ( )
Date: January 03, 2017 11:54PM

Wasn't Baltimore just as bad!???

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Posted by: ificouldhietokolob ( )
Date: January 04, 2017 10:53AM

According to this list (I can't vouch for its accuracy), much worse:


https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/top-lists/highest-murder-rate-cities/

This is also interesting -- world cities with the highest murder rates (4 of them are in the US, none are Chicago...though this is 2015 data)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/04/2017 10:57AM by ificouldhietokolob.

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Posted by: caffiend ( )
Date: January 11, 2017 11:39AM

"De-policing" has to be a factor. A cop sees a suspicious person. Does he want to do a "threshold inquiry," ask a few questions, and pat the guy down for a weapon? And risk a confrontation, a charge of racism, and possibly an investigation by a review board? That would possibly mean "losing his gun" (i.e. off the street at administrative duties), hostile coverage in the media, loss of overtime, and possible discipline.

No, the safer thing for the cop is to not bother, and play it safe for his career--which means more goons not being checked, not being checked for warrants, out and about--with their guns. Something the social justice warriors either don't know, or don't care about. Let's not overlook that law enforcement deaths by assault are way up, too.

The Chicago homicide rate may be worse than we realize:

https://aminewswire.com/stories/511071497-chicago-homicides-even-higher-than-reported

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Posted by: I love NY ( )
Date: January 04, 2017 06:08PM


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Posted by: caffiend ( )
Date: January 11, 2017 11:52AM

That drop coincides with Rudy Guliani, and the introduction of the "Broken Windows" philosophy of attending to quality-of-life enforcement, from towing abandoned cars to arresting turnstile jumpers and public urination. The belief is that when lawl-breakers see minor laws enforced, they assume that engaging in larger crimes entails increased palpable risk of arrest and prosecution, and they feel less empowered to do it.

The problem is that these things incident rates in neighborhoods that are economically deprived, which means a higher rate of ticketing, summons, and arrests for minorities, and the social justice warriors then decry the enforcement as racial bias.

I was amused late last year when a NYC city counselor called the police because some vagrant was defecating outside his office window. He was told that's not a crime anymore, and he had voted for the legislation!

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Posted by: rhgc ( )
Date: January 11, 2017 12:02PM

In the city in which I live and the surrounding towns, a total population of over 200,000 often years go by without a single murder. In two of the towns of about 20,000 each they go for over a decade between murders and annually remember murders back in 1969 and 1980 as those are the two most recent, one in one town and the other in the other town.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 01/11/2017 12:03PM by rhgc.

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