Define leaving. If you mean resigning plus going inactive it's possibly true seeing as how activity rate is as low as 30% in some parts of the world.

Closer to 10-15% activity rate in Scotland.

If he argues, ask him if your version is totally wrong, why don't the fossil 15 release their records so that there wouldn't be any argument?

Who is hiding what?

Meaning while you can't prove your point, neither can he. And how many 'new' mormons do you and he know, versus how many former mormons you and he know?

Elder Olddog wrote:
>...Meaning while you can't prove your point,

Ah, but you CAN! Some countries in their census ask about religious affiliation. When you compare the number of citizens who say they are Mormon with the number of members claimed by the church, it is a startling contrast.

See: "FAQ: How many exmormons are there?"
http://packham.n4m.org/morexmos.htm

If it's germane to the discussion.

May be legit, but probably pointless. The numbers are not public or clear enough to be definitive, so they're open to too much interpretation to prove anything.

I doubt that there are more solid members leaving than there are convert baptisms. However, if 75% of those new converts are gone within a year, I think the total number leaving is probably close to the number joining.

I know in Utah, at least everywhere I've lived, there are FAR more people leaving than there are joining. I've seen only a couple convert baptisms in the last 20 years, but I could probably think of 100+ BIC, RM's from my wards that have left in that time.