Will we ever see a massive blow to the church when members will leave all at once? Or will we continue to see the slower exodus of mormons leaving because of them finding out info individually on google?

Spring 2016.

Exodus' do not happen overnight. Look at history. Rliegions bleed. Sometimes more profusely than at other times. But the bleeeding is statistically clear, and bordering on hemmorage today. All myths are losing blood. We, the clots, are gaining quickly.

HH =)

Say 10% in spring 2016 would be an exodus.

Are we talking just U.S. members?

It certainly would be an exodus to lose 10 percent in such a short period, but I don't see the LDS church suffering that kind of loss next year.

I see continued losses in the 3 percent range per year for the next several years.

Losing 10 percent in a quarter in an annual loss of more than 34 percent. I just think that is some sort of exmo fantasy to even dream of that kind of shrinkage.

For curiosity's sake, on what are you basing this prediction of 10 percent loss in the second quarter of next year?

Just wait. It is something I know.

OK, put me squarely in the list of those who are skeptical of your prediction.

I understand.

OMFG I want to KNOW what you know if you know anything!

I'm wishing for a 'spring surprise'.

And thus, you shall be called 'Spring Suprise'.

Is there any reason why you think it'll be spring?

all this makes me wonder, just how many active members are there that are full tithing payers with an average us income??

Is it one million?
at an average income of 50,000 dollars that is that makes 5 billion in income in just tithing

Somebody on here used information from Canada, where apparently tithing numbers are made public, to extrapolate an estimate for the U.S.

It assumed that members in the U.S. donate at the same rate as Canadian members and adjusted for the different in incomes in the two countries.

I think that estimate for tithing income was around $8.5 billion.

$8.5 billion seems high. Active membership is in the 3-5 million range. I think 1 million tithe-paying households worldwide would be the high end. Many of those pay very little, but some pay very large amounts. I'd be surprised if total tithing receipts are over $5 billion...the actual total could be much lower than that.

All former Mormons need to make themselves known to the TBM community and be ready and willing to help during the coming mass defection. If we all let them know that they will find comfort and sympathy as well as guidance in our open arms, they may be more willing to walk.

I think that there are many in the church that are afraid to step out of the shadow of TSCC. If we let it be known that we understand their anxiety and trepidation, they may cut the cord finally.

A million times this ^

I'm not even officially out in my beliefs let alone they church.

This group and site has been nothing but helpful, caring, kind and supportive.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/26/2015 12:02AM by goodeye.

If we all let them know that they will find comfort and sympathy as well as guidance in our open arms, they may be more willing to walk.
Very good point. Imagine your early days when new to the exmo world, and coming here and witnessing what can sometimes be a very scathing and heated environment. But, well, you know: this is America, and it is the right of the people to eat each other alive whenever the spirit moves them.

I thought I read somewhere on a thread here that the morg is ending it's 100 year relationship with BSA because they are being sued for discrimination. If you will recall with SWK who said he got a revelation to give black men the priesthood in 1978. Not so. President Carter was in the process of or planning on suing the church on civil rights violations. The morg makes major changes as a result of lawsuits, not revelation. Otherwise it is just status quo.

I also read on this site that 1,000s resign monthly or approximately 100,000 a year. But that exit level has been going on for a number of years now. The resignations will continue because even die hard TBMs, who let me confess, I am ashamed to say, used to live at that level, resigned and couldn't be happier. TBMS will eventually collapse due to sheer exhaustion because no one can hold much less fulfill multiple callings.

I also think the morg will face more lawsuits. I heard they are consolidating their businesses. But the fact that they are building a new city in Florida really makes one wonder, what in the world are they thinking? I worked in residential and commercial real estate for 13 years in law firms in NYC. Just try building one building or converting a building into a condominium is such a huge, expensive, time consuming endeavor that has many levels to it. One wrench in the works and the developer can lose $300,000k a day or more just in interest payments if he/she is building a sky scraper. The city they are building will take decades. The key question is WHY? Do the Q12 and FP plan on relocating the headquarters to Florida? Probably not. The world is changing rapidly and I think that more members will leave over time. If baptism rates are low and then the new adult members exit, and less men serve missionaries, it will be like a domino effect. It's not a church anymore, but a business. The more that ex mormons spread the word, that will have an impact on saving lives and families from being destroyed by the morg.

LDS Inc is not leaving the BSA because of a discrimination lawsuit, they are not building a city in FL (a subdivision, though a very large one) and President Carter was not planning to sue them.

The real question? Will the next generation stay active in the church and raise their children to be active in the church? So far, the church seems to be doing everything to make young people what to run away from the church as soon as possible.

Isn't there kinda of an exodus since the morg announced and showed the media Joe Smith's peep stone!??

WHEN did MORmONISM supplant hopelessly apostate traditional Christianity just as MORmON founder Joseph Smith said it would ?

Oh that's right ..... ( it never happened)

SO, when ever MORmONISM'S membership Numbers finally nose dive it will only mean that MORmONISM is just more hopelessly short of its intended destiny, and more of a loser than it already was.

I think we are actually witnessing the exodus much as we're witnessing WWIII play out in a plodding and agonizing kind of way. I sincerely doubt that half the church is going to lay down their toilet brushes and walk out en masse. But the exodus is such that the anecdotal evidence is hefty. Look at the lessons and the exhortations from the pulpit, the cranking up of control. See how the information available to the public is galloping away from the church public relations office. This is all highly indicative of serious troubles in paradise. All is not well in Zion, obviously.

I always have hoped some big whig in TSCC or a Mormon superstar like Romney or Jabari would come across Joe's Myth, have their shelf break, and announce why they or no longer Mormon. I keep hoping. I would hope people would follow and a large all at once exodus would happen where the church would lose a huge percentage of active BIC members.

Romney gave a talk last year at BYU. In his opening remarks, he recalled the time when he and his wife attended there, "JS only had one wife." At the end of his speech, he bore allegiance to the cult. You can find d his speech on BYU.edu

Unless and until he develops the level of integrity that Tom Phillips has, I don't see him defecting.

Mr. Phillips a man of integrity, what a joke.

whywait Wrote:
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> Mr. Phillips a man of integrity, what a joke.


You are the jokester here with your numerous bad punchlines that no one else ever gets.

WWIII? Do you have a link or would mind explaining that? You have me curious.

Well, it isn't necessarily my take on WWIII, but there are those journalists and world leaders who believe that what we've been witnessing for the past 20 years or so is just a different iteration of world war. I would be surprised if you haven't heard people discuss this. It is often described as worldwide, but plodding and ruthless, which would also describe what we are witnessing with Islamic State, displaced peoples, and involvement by many or most of the same powers.

It's how I also envision the Mormon "exodus": Seems like not much is happening, but 20 years from now the whole LDS church could be different and on its knees.

The Morg will continue to slowly bleed members over time until all that's left are the batshit crazy lunatics (e.g. the Julie Rowe group).

The only way a quick mass exodus would occur would be due to some major event-- such as indisputable proof of fraud committed by the brethren, or the discovery of Spaulding's "Manuscript Found", or something similar. Even then, there would probably still be a core group of crazies that remain.

For a long time we worshiped animals - animism. Not too many left, but there remains a core animal worship community to this day

For a long time we worshiped many gods - polytheism. Not too many left, but there remains a core polytheistic community to this day

For a long time we've worshiped one god - monotheism. This is still going strong, but won't last nearly as long as animism or polytheism collectively

Mormonism will never go away. There will always be a core community who holds onto it no different than animists, polytheists, and monotheists.

The real question is what comes next?

I talk to all of my friends, both former Mormons and non-Mormons, and people seem to believe in a kind of "computer program in the sky." In other words, that DNA or the Big Bang or whatever is the "plan" and we can't see the greater plan. We are all just low level cogs in a big machine. Does that make sense?

I think the exodus began with information on the internet. I think it will continue to grow and move along. There are many countries that have some catching up to do as far as the internet goes. Also, the information will need to be in their language. The CES letter has been translated into German. I hope they are able to keep up the good work and put it out in many other languages. I'm not sure if its been translated to Spanish yet, but I think that would be great.

Utah may always be the "mormon" state, but that doesn't mean there won't be people leaving.

I was born in the early 50's. When I was younger, I very seldom knew someone who left the church. When they did, it was because they become tired of it, or it was too much for them. I never heard of anyone leaving for the reasons they're leaving now.

In the past I also saw people return to mormonism after many years of being out. I don't see that happening with the people that are leaving because of what they've learned about the church. They are done, finished, never to return. They have learned the real foundational truth of mormonism. That cannot be undone. They will not be raising their kids as mormons. That future generation of kids is dwindling, and dwindling fast. It's impossible to count. Many of these kids either aren't born yet, or will never be since the parents will no longer be pushed to have children beyond their abilities to care for them.

The baby boomers and their parents will die off. Who will be left? The members that are left will be the people who refuse to look at, or face the truth. They will be the diehard fundamentalists. It won't be a church that many want to join. I think the missionary program is already dying a slow death. The church has done all it can to make it a miserable experience for missionaries.

The Millennials and Generation X(my generation) aren't helping them much....Mostly because my generation was the first one with the Internet. The Millennial came afterwards with cell phones etc....