I've been reading an interesting book entitled "The Faith Instinct" by Nicholas Wade and would like to share a quote from the book.

"In the turbulent arena of American religious life, nothing seems fixed except a dynamic cycle whereby sects displace mainstream churches, lose their enthusiasm and become establishment themselves, and yield in turn to more vigorous sects. In the period from 1940 to 2000, mainstream sects suffered heavy losses, as measured in their share of overall church membership. Methodists declining by 56 percent, Presbyterians by 60 percent, Episcopalians by 51 percent and Congregationalists by 66 percent. The winners in the religious marketplace were the evangelical churches, the Mormons and Jehovah's Witnesses. These movements too, if the pattern continues, will eventually lose momentum and give up market share to insurrectionist sects." (p. 258-259)

I'd like to make a few of observations about that quote. First of all, I think Wade is exactly right in his assessment. After all, the evidence is in history.

Second, I think Mormonism has already peaked (or bottomed out, depending on your point of view) and has become as "mainstream" as it will get. From everything I've read, Mormonism lost momentum, it's enthusiasm in the 1970's and has been stagnant or in decline ever since.

Third, a question and a hope. The question is, what new "insurrectionist sect" has appeared on the scene to displace mainstream denominations? Scientology? Megachurches? I don't think so. In fact, I don't think there is any current upstart cult, sect or religion ready to assume new leadership. Which leads me to my hope. I hope that atheism is the new insurrection. Time will tell.

Since the only way to actually get your name off records is through an official resignation, people who stop believing are still counted among the membership even if they haven't attended church for 100 years. Up until 1988 a member had no way of removing their names from the records either so they would get counted regardless of their actual beliefs. They used to subtract deaths from their records but now they include them until they are 110. Apparently they also include children too young to be baptized as part of their total membership and have for the past 30 years. (I don't think they ever drop the children from their rolls either.) :P

Artificial inflation at its finest; one reason why official resignation is so important.

They have 13 million people on their rolls, but only 4 million are active.

Are ex-coms counted? I know the membership record is 'flagged' or something but it's retained by the Church.

Ya know, if you're going to be involved in a religion it might as well be one that has chutzpah and substance. Mormonism has it, whether you buy it or not.

You have only a few choices...religions with a lot of culture, tradition, sense of community and beliefs ranging from unique to wierd...

Mormonism, Judaism, Jehovah Wittnesses, Seventh Day Adventism.

The milk toast churches are cutting it anymore.
Then there's the success of Joel Osteen and the like Not wierd but what those outfits lack in substance they make up for in 'feel good' messages.

these days with the internet on your heels. There are just way too many cameras and youtube videos. Psychologists have labels for people who talk to God.

It seems like evangelicals got a big jump start by figuring out how to combine religion and politics - a truly scary mix.

I think you are right about atheism coming next. There isn't anything else on the horizon, and 'none' is the fastest growing category on religion surveys.

I think it was the ARIS survey that found Mormons were 1.7% of the US population in 1980, and 1.7% in 2002. They missed the boat.

The membership numbers are vastly over counted. I did everything I could do to get my name off the church records but it never happened. Eventually I just gave up feeling like the church was controlling my life by the quest to get off. Although they have honored my request for no contact most of the time, get the occassional call from someone saying they are my new home teacher or invitation to whatever crap going on. The missionaries came to my home a few weeks ago insisting to speak to my minor son, was so upset I cried as I begged them to leave us alone and they just didn't want to walk away so I slammed the door in their face. I wish they would ex-communicate me or something but the bishop insists he knows I will come back. Goes to show how little discernment he really has.

The Church has already shifted their rhetoric to match this change in membership dynamics. When I was young I remember everyone talking about the exponential growth of the church, and how in 30 years there would be 500 million members (because the church is true, etc). I was told how excited I should be about that, and isn't it amazing, and I betcha Jesus will be here any day. Now the message is something like "Only a small portion of the Earth will accept the church. Only the elect will choose to follow JC. Jesus won't come until we are righteous enough. Aren't we special for being stronger and more righteous than everyone else?"

So they went from a "we will take over the world" mentality to "we are special because we are unique" mentality. No one can win this argument any sooner than they can convince their kitchen table it is actually a cat. Mormonism will always be there, and its members will always think this way.

What I think will happen is a future split of the Church from the hard core "orthodox" Mormonism to the "New Wave" Mormonism that is still in its infancy. It is likely Mormonism will be around for as long as humans exist, and the message will continue to evolve to explain reality in a light that justifies their existence.

And I agree with many others. Atheism is by far the 'disrupting force' affecting fundamentalist Christians. Atheism is slightly affecting Mormonism, but the New Wave vs. Orthodox Mormonism seem to be a much larger movement than Atheism vs. Mormonism.