Posted by:
cupcakelicker
(
)
Date: July 24, 2014 03:57PM
There's definitely something screwy about Utah. I'll naively play with some numbers.
Apparently, about 70,000 morons crossed the plains. Of course, these weren't single, totally unrelated individuals. To be kind, I'll call them couples with one kid each. So, 24,000 family units crossed the plains; 24,000 genetic lines popping out the next generation. But wait! Most pioneers were converted with other family members (true for most of my lines), so the pioneers themselves would have to be treated as the first crossing of the ancestors of the pioneers. I'll figure 12,000 genetic lines to play with when they got here. Actually, pioneers from Europe tended to be converted in groups in small towns, where they were probably related to begin with, but let's ignore that.
Factor in polygamy and what do we get? Of the first generation of women born in Deseret, I think ~30% were polygamous. Even if the sex ratio was 1 (and it was higher), we'd have to throw away the genetic lines of 30% of the men (except for the pool cleaner and milkman), so we're down to a gene pool of less than 10,000, in an endogamous, polygamous group in an isolated valley.
And then, polygamy strikes the next generation. The polygamous elite takes a new generation of attractive European women and pumps them full of royal sperm from a small pool. Less attractive women are given to the rank-and-file members as monogamous wives. BY alone starts 50+ "royal" lines which really ought to avoid each other.
Next generation (last official polygamous generation): the attractive daughters of the attractive pioneers are distributed among the royalty again; elite Mormon inbreeding begins.
By 1900, we're down to around 1000 uncrossed genetic lines. This isn't going to end well, is it?
To summarize, if you're in your mid-thirties to early forties, of pure pioneer stock without a drop of royal blood, and you pick up a drunk Daughter of Utah Pioneers, also non-royalty, in a bar, there's only a (1 - 999!/991! / 1000!/992!) = 0.9% chance you're doing your cousin (2nd or closer). Isn't that what everyone really wanted to know?
Edit: How embarrassing. It's 1-992!/984! / 1000!/992!, selecting 8 non-identical random great-grandparents from a pool of 1000 unrelated lines, or a 6.2% chance you're doing your cousin.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/24/2014 04:13PM by â…˝upcakelicker.