OK,
There has been a lot made of comments made by Elder David F. Evans, head of the Missionary Department, who asserted that there has been “an overall 15 percent increase in the number of convert baptisms this year compared to a comparable period last year.”

Here are my thoughts on the matter:

1. The growth of LDS Inc. does not prove anything with regards to its veracity. Islam grows much faster than the Mormon church. Does that mean that Islam is the true religion? Of course not.

2. “Figures don’t lie but liars figure.” Of course, Evans is a shill for LDS Inc. so, naturally, he is going to spin the numbers for the greatest positive result for TSCC.

3. A single piece of data or a single statistic means absolutely nothing! You will notice that Evans selected a “comparable period” in 2013. Notice that he did not compare “growth” to 2012, 2000, or 1989. In other words, he cherry-picked his data because he feels obligated to be a “spin doctor.”

Now, consider the following data on Church growth. These numbers come from the Church Almanac, so they are official from the LDS perspective. The first column is the year, the second column is the number of members, the third column is the number of new members, and the fourth column is the rate of growth. I went back to 1960 because I felt that 53 years was a pretty good sample size.

1960 1,693,180 77,092 4.77%
1961 1,823,661 130,481 7.71%
1962 1,965,786 142,125 7.79%
1963 2,117,451 151,665 7.72%
1964 2,234,916 117,465 5.55%
1965 2,395,932 161,016 7.20%
1966 2,480,899 84,967 3.55%
1967 2,614,340 133,441 5.38%
1968 2,684,073 69,733 2.67%
1969 2,807,456 123,383 4.60%
1970 2,930,810 123,354 4.39%
1971 3,090,953 160,143 5.46%
1972 3,218,908 127,955 4.14%
1973 3,306,658 87,750 2.73%
1974 3,409,987 103,329 3.12%
1975 3,572,202 162,215 4.76%
1976 3,742,749 170,547 4.77%
1977 3,969,220 226,471 6.05%
1978 4,166,854 197,634 4.98%
1979 4,404,121 237,267 5.69%
1980 4,639,822 235,701 5.35%
1981 4,920,449 280,627 6.05%
1982 5,162,619 242,170 4.92%
1983 5,351,724 189,105 3.66%
1984 5,641,054 289,330 5.41%
1985 5,919,483 278,429 4.94%
1986 6,166,974 247,491 4.18%
1987 6,394,314 227,340 3.69%
1988 6,721,210 326,896 5.11%
1989 7,308,444 587,234 8.74%
1990 7,761,179 452,735 6.19%
1991 8,089,848 328,669 4.23%
1992 8,404,087 314,239 3.88%
1993 8,689,168 285,081 3.39%
1994 9,024,368 335,200 3.86%
1995 9,338,859 314,491 3.48%
1996 9,692,441 353,582 3.79%
1997 10,071,783 379,342 3.91%
1998 10,354,241 282,458 2.80%
1999 10,752,986 398,745 3.85%
2000 11,068,861 315,875 2.94%
2001 11,394,522 325,661 2.94%
2002 11,721,548 327,026 2.87%
2003 11,985,254 263,706 2.25%
2004 12,275,822 290,568 2.42%
2005 12,560,869 285,047 2.32%
2006 12,868,606 307,737 2.45%
2007 13,193,999 325,393 2.53%
2008 13,508,509 314,510 2.38%
2009 13,824,854 316,345 2.34%
2010 14,131,467 306,613 2.22%
2011 14,441,346 309,879 2.19%
2012 14,782,473 341,127 2.31%
2013 15,082,028 299,555 1.99%

A couple of observations:

1. In spite of the surge and 80,000+ missionaries, the Morg is baptizing fewer members than in 1988 – that was 25 years ago.

2. In fact, the Morg had better years in 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012. 2013 was an absolute disaster! So, selecting a comparison quarter in 2013 is really, really cherry-picking your data.

3. Look at the fourth column and how the numbers have gone down almost every year. The trend is undeniable – TSCC is growing at a negative rate.

4. LDS growth seems to have peaked around 1989 or thereabouts. It is doubtful that those halcyon numbers will ever be repeated.

Again, we expect “spin” from LDS representatives. However, using their own data, we can readily see how deceptive LDS Inc. can be when it promotes its “growth.”

It seems obvious that the 21st century has been an absolute train wreck for LDS growth. Look for the trend to continue.

Also, LDS Inc. loves to broadcast the number of baptisms in a year but they do not ever mention things like member retention and activity rates.

Since we know that most of the growth is coming from 3rd world African countries, that suggests that growth in Canada and USA has come to a virtual standstill. The only way TSCC is managing to tread water in North America is due to "organic growth" -- members having babies.

The decline in growth rates as a percentage of total membership is partially due to cumulatively inflating the membership numbers. 2013 was still a particularly bad year based on the number of converts compared to other years.

In summary.

Convert baptisms are lower than before the internet.

It seems like the real golden era for the church was 1961-1965. I can see that. You had the assassination of a president, the Bay of Pigs, fear of communism, and at the same time the beginnings of the "youthquake" with the Beatles, Rolling Stones, etc. A certain number of adults and families might have sought the security of a very conservative church.

You can see the rate of conversions start to fall off sharply with the rise of the internet. Around 1997-1998 many public libraries were starting to get internet access. You had the Netscape browser and a handful of search engines like Alta Vista. A large number of people were learning how to use the internet. They were easily able to access certain types of information for the first time. RfM came online about that time.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/04/2014 08:38AM by summer.

There are no deaths IN TSCC.