Stray Mutt Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Slight increase because there will be more > unmarried 19-yr-old women than there were > 21-yr-old women.
This is another point to watch. There was a huge increase in women, in fact, that's where most of the surge came from. However, as the pent up demand has been exhausted, it will be interesting to see where those numbers go.
Pre-surge, there was about 8,700 sisters, at 15% of the total. Now there are 23,800 at 28% for an increase of 15,000 more.
However, this is the peak, as the first wave of the yonger sisters are now starting to go home.
My WAG is when things settle down, there will be 14,000 or an increase of about 5,300 from pre-surge numbers.
I also think that this number will continue to decline because more and more people are going to get the message that missions aren't a lot of fun.
....The AGE of new missionaries may be permanent, but the numbers are just temporary. This is because the November 2012 large influx of mishies due to age, will catch up to itself as those will return home. Then, in effect, mathematical equilibrium will occur.
Actually, it may somewhat backfire on the GA's because these 18 yr old boys are not as mature, and many don't stay out in the field for the full term.
There will be slightly more in the long run because the boys are goin straight from high school instead of college where there's a greater chance of them "straying" (learning to think for themselves, enjoying their freedom, less pressure from the parents, partying, getting a girlfriend) and more girls will serve because much fewer of them will be married at that age. Serving a mission for the girls is no longer an, "I couldn't find a husband" old maids' club.
Yes, but it won't be because of any permanent spread of righteous desire to serve.
Besides, the demographics aren't in the church's favor. Mormons haven't been having as many kids as generations past, so the pool of mission age people is shrinking. Dropping the age helped mask (at least temporarily) that shrinkage.
You're going to pick up all the men that will go at 18 but wouldn't have gone at 19 (not a big number), and all the girls that will go at 19 but wouldn't go at 21 (that *is* a big number).
Almost all of the growth will be in girls/women going on missions. So yes, the absolute number of missionaries will increase. It's unlikely it'll matter, though. Most of the potential mission fields have already reached saturation point -- throwing additional missionaries at it may garner some marginal increases, but it won't be very big.
It is true that the number of young men serving will increase slightly while the number of young women serving will increase greatly. All of this due to the lowering of mission ages. Specifically, young women are much more inclined to serve at 19 than at 21 due to marriage issues, naivete, etc.
The number of converts will not increase dramatically but TSCC will really tighten its grip on its young people. That is the real motivation for lowering the ages for missionary service.
The Morg is estimating the number post-surge in the upper 70k range, but that is wildly optimistic.
I've done some back-of-the-envelope numbers and estimate 2015 to be between 67,000 to 72,000, and possibly dropping even lower. I just can't see how there can be more than 72k.
The more interesting question is where did all the expected missionaries go? If everyone who was going to go at 19 went at 18, and based on 2012 percentages, the peak should have been about 100k, instead of the 88k which they anticipate.
The number of elders has increased, but only by about 8,000 where it should have increased by 23,000 had everyone simply gone at 18 last year instead of waiting to turn 19.
(This calculation includes the increase of sister and senior missionaries.)
So, they are about 15,000 less than what would be expected had everyone gone. Googling gives the following quote by an unnamed source in June last year:
"At least one church analyst predicts the total could swell to more than 100,000 next year before it levels out somewhat in the next several years. That would be nearly double the number of missionaries the church had during most of the 2000s."
Some possible reasons:
Obviously, not as many young men are going. We'll see how the numbers are next year, to see if they are holding out for another year, or if there are less men going.
More likely, there are a significant number which are coming back, many for "health reasons."
That number in in the thousands. There are 405 missions now, and if they each lose one missionary per month, that's 4,820 per year.
Once the numbers start dropping off, they can prop them up a bit by increasing the female length of service from 18 to 24 months. They could also encourage missionaries whose term ends near the end of a calendar year to stay a little longer in order to count them in the total of an additional year.
It's not going to help them by significantly increasing the number of sister missionaries.
There already are more unmarried active females over the age of 25. The limiting factor in church growth is Melchizedek priesthood holders and the other option, ordaining women isn't an option for them.
They usually release numbers during general conferences, so it's not year-end numbers which matter.
I know as a male missionary, most of my "success" came from discussions with female investigators. Most of my baptisms were female.
So it may have been a brilliant move to get more female missionaries in the field. We all know that when an attractive female is showing attention to a geeky, young male, the male's reasoning skills go out the window.
The females may have a greater likelihood to attract those future Melchizedek priesthood holders.
I think cultural changes will impact the outcome. While leaving right after HS graduation was trendy this year, lots of guys just really aren't ready for that, and the early return numbers have risen. My TBM brother sent the first kid out as soon as they heard he could go - after a semester at BYU, and 5 months earlier than planned. Son #2, they have announced, will go 3 months after turning 19, after a year of college. The family is on the east coast and provides a lot of support for local missionaries. I think that's a big part of why. If other parents encourage that year of college (very needed - 18 year olds are so young!) that may even create a drop.
The other big question is whether missions will become part of the expectations for women. Will young men turn their noses up at nonRMs? I saw the look of horror on my 14-year-old niece's face as she processed that idea. Exerting that same cultural pressure on women could have the effect of permanently raising the number of missionaries. A lot of them are unhappy and/or coming home early too, though. In the long run, that may reduce the pressure they put on their kids to go....
They're going to take a hit on male missionary numbers because they're more likely to have immature greenies who can't finish their term. They should have looked at what happened to the U.S. Army when enlistment standards were lowered in 2004 to meet recruitment goals - a lot of people got in who shouldn't have, and a lot of them washed out relatively quickly.
The additional family cost of $400.00 for missionary Ipods may hurt some families. $450.00 a month per missionary is bad enough. There is less money in this economy, LDS families are feeling it just like everyone else.
Usually if a family is struggling to pay for their kid's mission, the church will help them out.
It's financially beneficial for the church to help pay for missions if they have to, as the kid will more likely stay active, hence pay this money back and more in tithing eventually.