Mormon are departing from the faith as fast as fast as converts are joining

The official Mormon reaction to the articles stating that there are significantly less than 12 million members worldwide.

This is from a Salt Lake Tribune article Sep. 1^st, 2005 quoting Merrill Bateman, a Mormon Seventy

“…He agreed the LDS Church's worldwide membership, reported at 12 million, includes many who no longer consider themselves Mormon, but he disagreed with researchers who estimated active Mormons equal only 4 million.

Bateman said that number doesn't count those in undeveloped countries who find it difficult to attend sacrament meetings. ‘So you might have in the neighborhood of . . . 4 [million] and 5 million members attending church at any given time, but those who are active would be more than that.’ " end quote

That number of individuals who are unable to attend meetings is by no means 7-8 million people. There are not that many members in undeveloped countries. (5+7=12 million) This is finally an official acknowledgment that the Mormon church is, and has been, dishonest in claiming 12 million members.

This is from an article Sep. 1st, 2005. Source: http://www.sltrib.com/ci_2991263

...

In the United States, Mormons are departing from the faith as fast as fast as converts are joining. Converts rarely remain active in the Mormon Church.

This is from an article July 8th, 2005. Source: http://news.yahoo.com

Excerpt: ‘The problem originates in the faith's tradition of rapid conversion of investigators to the church according to David Stewart, a church member and researcher who has studied the problem of member retention in the church.

Stewart, who has studied the question for over 14 years, said that such quick conversions are a "recipe for inactivity."

"I'm encouraged that there is a little bit of awareness of the problem," he said.

The American Religious Identification Survey of 2001 the Graduate Center of City University of New York said in a report that the same number of people had left the Mormon church in the United States as had joined it.’

Keeping members a challenge for LDS church
Mormon myth: The belief that the church is the fastest-growing faith in the world doesn't hold up

This is from the Salt Lake Tribune http://www.sltrib.com July 26, 2005

Excerpt: .The claim that Mormonism is the fastest-growing faith in the world has been repeated so routinely by sociologists, anthropologists, journalists and proud Latter-day Saints as to be perceived as unassailable fact. The trouble is, it isn't true…

But since 1990, other faiths - Seventh-day Adventists, Assemblies of God and Pentecostal groups - have grown much faster and in more places around the globe…

…the Seventh-day Adventist Church reports it has added more than 900,000 adult converts each year since 2000 [compared to the Mormon Church’s conversion of only 241,239 in 2004] (an average growth of about 5 percent), bringing the total membership to 14.3 million. The Assemblies of God now claims more than 50 million members worldwide, adding 10,000 new members every day.’

Initial Mormon Reaction
Mormon, “Cancel my subscription!”

This is from the Daily Herald: Daily Herald Article on Lack of Church Growth July 31, 2005

Excerpt from the “The Daily Herald” Sunday, July 31, 2005

In Our View: Don't kill messenger on LDS statistics

Even in the enlightened 21st century, when bad news is received, some people's first impulse is to kill the messenger.

This week, several articles were published in the Herald about membership trends in the LDS Church. The articles looked at whether high LDS growth rates from the past can feasibly continue.

One article noted the decline in the number of missionaries and tied it to declines in the number of new converts. Another looked at the problem the church has with retention of new converts, about 20 or 30 percent compared to a more hopeful 80 percent in some other rapidly growing Christian denominations. One of the articles mentioned research findings that suggest that only about 4 million of the 12 million members on the church's rolls are active in church programs.

Several readers were so unhappy to read these findings that they cancelled their subscriptions to the newspaper…

Would anyone seriously want a community newspaper to confine itself to reporting only good news, as though problems did not exist? Apparently a few would, but they will not be found among those who make a meaningful difference in the world. They're just along for the ride as others wrestle with, and solve, genuine problems, whatever they may be.

Meanwhile, please remember that the Herald is only the messenger. We thank you for resisting the temptation to kill us when the news is bad.

Subject:	Mormon Church claims to have over a million members in Mexico.
Date:	Jul 28 17:45 2005
Author:	Robert

Yet, according to the 2000 census, the Instituto Nacional de Estadadistica e Informatica (INEGI) only found some 205,229 people who considered themselves Mormon.

[Webmaster Note: The Jehovah’s Witnesses and Seventh-Day Adventists are far more accurate in their membership numbers. Their claims are very close to the Mexican census numbers as opposed to the wildly exaggerated claims of the Mormon church of over 1 million when there is, in reality, less than ¼ of that number.]

There are 1,057,736 Mexicans who consider them selves to be Jehovah's Witnesses and 488,945 Mexicans who consider them selves to be Seventh-Day Adventists. I understand that if a JW isn't active, they are dropped from the membership rolls. I also understand that a similar process is used by the Seventh-Day Adventists as well.

[Webmaster Note: In the Mormon Church, a convert is considered a member for life or until the records indicate he or she is 110 years old. Inactive or unbelieving Mormons are not removed from the church count of members unless they request name removal or formally resign or have been excommunicated. Formal resignation with a hand written letter is not common in countries outside of the US. The majority of Mormons, that are on the church records, simply drop into inactivity and do not consider them selves Mormon. That explains why census records in countries that compile religious affiliation show the official Mormon count to be high by a factor of 4-6 times or more! Most churches drop from their membership rolls those that have not attended for some period of time, usually 1-2 years.]

For the Spanish speakers here, you can read the Census at http://www.inegi.gob.mx

This takes you straight there--click on ver cuadro on the following link

http://www.inegi.gob.mx/est/librerias/tabulados.asp?tabulado=tab_re01b&c=738

Chilean census
http://www.ine.cl/cd2002/religion.pdf

Brazilian count
http://www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/populacao/censo2000/populacao/religiao_Censo2000.pdf

Subject:	SL Tribune: Mormonism NOT the "world's fastest growing religion"/Mormon growth and retention rates slowing
Date:	Jul 27 17:14 2005
Author:	Tal Bachman

http://www.sltrib.com/opinion/ci_2890645

Couple of comments:

In Brazil, in 2000, the church had 743,182 members on its rolls. Yet only 199,645 identified themselves as members. Bear in mind, those aren't active members, just those who claim they are Mormon. If the activity rate amongst those who identify themselves as Mormons is anything like that for those who do so elsewhere, it would be very surprising if even 100,000 Mormons were active in a country whose population is now approaching 200 MILLION.

When the amount of money and manhours spent on conversion and retention in Brazil over the past century is considered (not only full-time missionaries but stake missionaries, home teachers, bishopric visits, individual missionary efforts), this figure seems really low. It looks even worse once we look at the amount of people who have joined other religions in the same time, like pentecostal Christianity, which have expended far less missionary effort. What's even worse is that Brazil has many millions of truly desperate people in it, a state which seems more conducive to religious conversion.

Also, I don't really get Rodney Stark's comments in this article at all. Over the course of his career he seems to have grown more and more well-disposed toward religion - I understand that. What I don't get is the cavalier attitude over his own projections of Mormon growth rates. This guy's supposed to be a serious expert on religions, and he seems to have adopted an almost Nibley-like detachment to his problematic pronouncements: "Hey, you can't really take all that seriously" "Hey, I can't really be held responsible for anything I said more than three years ago", etc. There are people whose devotion to Joseph's cult is helped along by Stark's seemingly very flawed growth projections, including people who I care deeply about. When you actually think that Mormonism IS the fastest growing religion in the world, and that some "expert" like Stark is announcing that by 2060 it will be right up there with Islam and stuff, it helps keep the blinders on, and helps maintain a sense of fear about permitting yourself to wonder if maybe you could be wrong. No one likes to get left behind, and if you think your pack is the biggest and best out there, it helps keep you in. If Stark's projections were on track, I wouldn't care at all if the whole world knew about them. But since they seem to be NOT on track, I think he ought to revisit and revise them out of respect for all the people who rely on his word so much, and on the word of those who echo his overly sanguine projections at the ground level.

By the way, the best estimates from church researchers are that there are around 4 million active members. This is exactly what we have figured on here in numerous threads, though I wouldn't be surprised if the figure were even a bit lower. That gives me reason to believe that at least in this particular case, our view hasn't been jaundiced by our understanding that Mormonism is a fraud. That's pretty good news.

Lastly, if the annual conversion number is 240,000 plus, and less than half of those remain active, and you figure in an increasing attrition rate due to the church's loss of monopoly on information about itself, Hinckley's boneheaded interviews, FARMS unwitting idiocy, etc., and you guess what that rate might be based on the testimonies of bishops who have since left the church about the number of resignations they handled each year, the City University of New York's guess that church net growth is around ZERO seems suddenly fairly plausible.

I hope Hinckley lives for another hundred years, and they put Dan Peterson in charge of The Ensign.

T.

Subject:	great post Tal
Date:	Jul 27 18:10
Author:	nobody

A couple of minor thoughts. Tal, I think your being generous when you make the assumption that 1/2 of converts stay active. Based on my experience from my mission on the East Coast along with the Stake I was a member in, I would guess 10 -20 percent stay active after 1- 2 years.

A side note: Over the last 15 years I can only think of two families (Husband, wife and kids) that have been converted in our Stake and remained active. And just think of all the manhours, not to mention guilt, that has gone into trying to convert families.

Also, during this same time period in this Stakes geographical boundary, 1,000's of young upper middle class families (who had no ties to a particular church) have decided that they need a church to raise their families in and have joined or converted to many of the religions in this area(i.e. Mariners, Presp, Lutheran, etc.) Most of these churches don't even solicit for prospective members, the prospects come to them.

Again, after all the organized man hours the Mormon church puts into converting member, they could only get 2 families, while 1,000's of their target market were searching and ultimately joining other religions. The Mormon Church wasn't even on the short list for most of these people.

The Church can revamp the missionary program all they want, the member can double their efforts, but until they change the product, the church will not get a sniff from their target market.

Growth in the Mormon church during 70' through 90's was all smoke and mirrors. It was all based on higher than average birth rates and misleading conversion numbers. (i.e converting people, but only retaining a small portion of those conversions)

I'm rambling now. I think the misleading conversion problem is due to mission presidents only serving for three years and having no ties to the area that they are assigned to. Because of the pressure they feel from above, and due to the above stated, the MPs would then pressure the missionaries to baptize at all cost, they didn't care what came of the converts, they just needed to make their quotas. The members that lived in the area could deal with the clean up.

And after all these years of faulty conversions, it is just now getting the attention of the old farts in the ivory tower. I think up until a few years ago, many of the older GA's did not fully grasp the reality of the faulty conversions. Implicitly these old farts are surrounded by yes men who are afraid to tell then the entire story. It is interesting that we as exmorg's have a better reality of where the church is headed than most of the big 12.

sorry to ramble all over the place.

Subject:	My anecdotal experience...
Date:	Jul 27 18:29
Author:	Craig Paxton

Thanks to the Internet I have been able to check up on the membership status of the 14 people that I baptized on my mission. Of these original 14 that became members only 3 are currently active members of the church. And I use the term active loosely. However, they have children that have joined the church...so that has taken the net total with children included back up to 8 active.

Although this is anecdotal, it clearly demonstrates the severity of the problem facing the church. And the ones that left merely fell into inactivity...they don’t even know the fraudulent history of the foundational claims of the church.

Oh one more thought...if you take me out...since I'm no longer a member...that leaves a net loss of 7.

So about a 50-50 split

Subject:	Stark's statistical fallacies finally play out...
Date:	Jul 27 18:40
Author:	someone

1. Everyone with any common sense (ie. no Mormons, and especially not Stark himself) knew Stark was full of crap when he predicted an exponential growth curve based on a fixed growth rate. Growth rates are never fixed.

2. For Stark to claim that everyone who was against his predictions were 'desperate' anti-mormons is foolish. Clearly his detractors were right, and he, with his more 'objective analysis' was wrong. Clearly his detractors deserve some credit for calling this one much more accurately than he did.

3. Stark was a fool from the beginning (and remains so) for ranking the church with greater historical institutions, underestimating the dishonesty of the LDS church and neglecting what the long-term effects of this dishonesty would be, as our technology to analyze this bullcrap improves. (BTW the Information Age is just getting started... it only gets worse for liars and cheats, such as the Mormon church, moving forward).

4. Stark does an incredible snake-oil con-man act in this article. This is a typical tactic, a subtle betrayal and attack on his audience... very recognizable to those of us who have gotten fed up and have left the LDS church: Authority figure presents all proclamations (commandments, attacks, or simply manufactured 'facts') with the utmost seriousness... Then, when it turns out they're caught in a corner, they give ya that nudge in the ribs, pat on the back, then chuckle and say 'Aw... come on, you didn't really think I meant all that, did ya? I was just pretending! Be a sport there folks... You're all being too serious!!!".

(No offense Rodney but BULLSH*T! You meant it and still mean it... no weasling out now.)

5. Like the LDS church, Stark leaves himself wiggle-room to go both ways when he's wrong on an issue. As we see at the end, he says 'But again, if Mormon growth has slowed a little, it can speed up again'. So it's clear that he does still take his original prediction seriously... although he's now riding both sides of the issue, and selling a new book on it to boot.

The real question is, why would anyone still believe this guy, and why in the HELL would they buy his book?

The most serious problem here (especially considering that Stark is a sociologist) is that he STILL has NO IDEA that there has been a FUNDAMENTAL shift in how people gather information, how they check their facts, and what impact that is having on world religions, governments, corporations, and social behavior in general. This is not a blip on the radar... this is a decade-old, likely very long-term, 180 degree shift in how people make decisions about the Mormon church, and Stark is so clueless he still hasn't figured it out.

someone

Subject:	Stark's main assumption has been debunked by Mormonism in another way.
Date:	Jul 27 19:11
Author:	Fonbossi

A Utah researcher published his findings in the late 90's that found, contrary to Stark's premise, that monopolistic religion had higher activity rates than among regions with religious competition (the rational choice model) which Stark said favors "more strict" religions. It seems Stark was already told this from other Catholic areas that confirmed the success of religious monopoly, but he ignored it to hype his lame theory on human nature, which never held water because religion is only a free commodity in a highly secular environment, which it opposes.

Subject:	Mormon stock has crashed, and the media stakes are enormous.
Date:	Jul 27 18:42
Author:	Fonbossi

No more barfbag apologetics from "safe" and approved Mormon observers who are called upon to spin the growth of the Morg. Jan Shipps and Rodney Stark come to mind. Actually, Rodney should just jump out of a window he's so worthless on paper.

A bonus in all of this is that balance and consensus can be demanded on political matters without the Morg rolling its eyes in hatred towards uncooperative non-Mormons. Another bonus is that ex-mormons will be taken more seriously since there are probably more of us than them. Yet another bonus is that Mormons can't go around citing their popularity as if they are more attractive than they really are. Now they actually have to say something that sounds true.

Perhaps the best thing to come out of all of this is that Utah will no longer be taken for granted as a Mormon state that follows the professional liars in the great and spacious Church Orifice Building, because like Will Bagley said today on the radio, they have been grossly inflating their numbers in Utah from the beginning in order to keep political control.

How many of us have had parents or siblings confront us and tell us that we are wrong about Mormonism because it is growing so fast and rewarding so many people? The Morg's growth was just like a stock price to my mom--it reflected the Morg's value in the world.

Subject:	And if mormonism is so great, why...
Date:	Jul 27 18:48
Author:	Sustained and Released

...is it necessary to give people the hard sell to get them in, and then threaten them with dire consequences if they leave.

This is prompted by Tal's mention that other christian sects are nearly or just as successful in attracting converts even though they don't spend as much in missionary efforts.

If mormonism was what it claims, people would be fighting to get in, or at the very least would not consider it such a chore to be a member.

Subject:	Exactly. What's with the Amway sales model?
Date:	Jul 27 19:15
Author:	dick

Mormonism is sold to the friends and family of existing members, just like Amway. Also, like Amway, the sales force goes door-to-door, but this is not nearly as productive as the "friends and family" sales.

Subject:	I emailed Rodney Stark once
Date:	Jul 27 19:30
Author:	Tal Bachman

I emailed Rodney Stark once not long after he'd left U of Washington for Baylor (which, given his increasingly weird statements, seems like a much more suitable place for him). I asked him about the point raised by "Someone" in his thread, namely, that since his projections had been made without inclusion of the variable of exploding increases in access to information about the church (an increase which appears to be causally related to the growing rate of member defections), whether he ought to revise those projections. He didn't respond, though.

I also agree it is really weird that Stark seems to have bought into LDS anti-Mormon mythology. This raises the question of whether the increasing affection he seems to feel for religion in general is not so much due to appreciation of religion's social utility, as to a decreasing ability or desire to distinguish the fabulous from the real. He is, after all, human. Who knows what's going on with him?

T.

Subject:	Stark has another volume coming out about Mormonism, and this explains...
Date:	Jul 27 20:39
Author:	006

..why he's sticking to his 'mormonism is a major world religion' claims. He knows (consciously or not) which side his bread is buttered on. There's no one Mormons love more than an outsider who tells them how great they and their church are.

It is nice to see that he at least realizes that his 'statistical projections' were really amateur stuff.

Nice to see this article being published in the Tribune, though. Even though it's the 'evil' paper, hopefully the info will find its way around.

Subject:	I've been suspicious of this Stark guy since last year, not just because of the numbers.
Date:	Jul 27 20:59
Author:	Dagny

In June of last year, I read his new book "For the Glory of God, How Monotheism Led to Reformations, Science, Witch-hunts, and the End of Slavery."

Up until I read this book I thought Stark was fairly objective. Now I'm thinking he is going out of his way throwing bones to religion. Why? Because his job depends on religion's approval? Because he is bending over backward to be seen as a friend of religion? Because perhaps he is some sort of believer himself? I really can't say, but whatever it is, he has a problem with secular atheists.

In the book, which had many insightful ideas that were impressive, he comes across as a Christian apologist, using more than a touch of FAIR tactics.

He cherry picks a few ideas to convince the reader religion is what aided science, and the end of slavery and witchcraft. Sure, there were some religious people involved in these things, but the big picture shows a complete different story which he ignores.

For example he tells that the Christian God teaches to "Know thou my handiwork" so THAT is what powered science. So, in a way, I can see how he could argue that point. But come on! Religion has been a ball and chain for science every inch of the way. He doesn't seem to notice!

Anyone who doesn't agree with him on his points has a "liberal secular atheist view" which are responsible for the incorrect opinions prevailing in sociology today. Those evil atheists are not giving religion the credit it deserves for our free scientific society.

He especially excuses the Roman Catholic Church from much wrongdoing, but makes a point to say he is not Catholic and that his beliefs are personal.

By the end of the book I wondered if he did numbers like he cherry picked research. He is definitely a religion-friendly sociologist who amazingly can credit religion where little credit is due.

He reminds me of Michael Quinn. You know he has the information, but he just can't seem to admit the big picture.

Subject:	I think the rate will go down faster than their numbers predict....
Date:	Jul 27 20:09
Author:	Grandma2

Taking into consideration peer pressure, and the dull nature and demands of the church, more and more members will feel free to look around as the numbers drop, and see the church for what it really is. Only the very uber families will stick it out. There are many families sucked into conformity, especially in my neighborhood. When that conformity isn't such a threat, more will drop out.

Their numbers aren't taking into consideration all you guys (and some gals) who are active because of your spouse. With other wives pulling out, there won't be the pressure, and there will be alternatives for Sunday other than TSCC.

Subject:	More on REAL LDS growth numbers...
Date:	Jul 30 12:02
Author:	Deconstructor

If you think the SL Tribune articles on pathetic Mormon Church growth were good, then you should check out this church statistics page:

http://www.cumorah.com/harvest.html

Here are some interesting facts cited from the page:

Twice as many missionaries, half the converts

"The average missionary in 1989 brought 8 people into the church, while in 2000 the average missionary brought 4.6 people into the church. When one accounts for actual activity and retention rates, with the great majority of LDS convert growth occurring in Latin America and other areas with low retention, and only 20-25% of convert growth occurring in North America, one finds that of the 4.6 persons baptized by the average missionary each year, approximately 1.3 will remain active. This declining growth comes in spite of unprecedented increase in opportunity. From 1990 to 2000, the LDS Church opened an additional 59 nations to proselyting."

"241,239 LDS convert baptisms were reported for 2004, the lowest number of converts since 1987. Other recent years have also demonstrated decelerating church growth. Over the past decade, LDS missionaries have been challenged to double the number of baptisms, but instead the number of baptisms per missionary has halved."

Church growth down to 3% per year

"The LDS Church is one of the few Christian groups with a large missionary program to experience declining growth rates in spite of widening opportunities. An analysis of annual LDS statistical reports published in the May Ensigns of each year demonstrates that LDS growth has declined progressively from over 5% annually in the late 1980s to less than 3% annually from 2000 to 2004."

Pathetic Mormon presence in Europe

"There are over 570,000 active Seventh-day Adventists in Kenya alone, but less than 570,000 Latter-day Saints (of which less than 200,000 are active) in all of continental Europe, Asia, and Africa combined. After more than fifteen years of proselyting in Russia with the largest full-time missionary force of any denomination, LDS membership has risen to only 17,000, with a fraction of those members remaining active. The same period has seen the number of active Jehovah's Witnesses in Russia rise to over 140,000, with some 300,000 individuals attending conferences. There are more active Jehovah's Witnesses in the countries of Georgia or Armenia than active Latter-day Saints in all of Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and Russia together. There are fewer than 100,000 active Latter-day Saints in all of Europe, including the United Kingdom."

Based on growth, Jehovah's Witnesses is more true church than Mormon Church

"Given that the Mormons are generally viewed as the world's most successful new religion and had about an 80-year start on the Witnesses, this is an astonishing achievement.” It is even more astonishing when we consider that, since Jehovah's Witness participation significantly surpasses raw membership alone while LDS participation is only a fraction of raw membership, the number of active and participating Jehovah's Witnesses worldwide far surpasses the number of active and participating Latter-day Saints. In 1935, there were 56,000 Jehovah's Witnesses worldwide and 746,384 Latter-day Saints. Since 1935, the number of active Jehovah's Witnesses has multiplied their numbers by a factor of more than a hundredfold, while LDS membership has multiplied by a factor of twenty, with only a fraction of that number representing active members."

Christian churches growing much faster than Mormon Church

"The Seventh-day Adventist Church was organized in 1849 and recently overtook the LDS Church with 13 million members. Seventh-day Adventists were adding an average of 3,176 new members each day in 2000,15 and have experienced increased growth since that time, adding between 900,000 and 1.2 million members each year. In 2004, the LDS Church added an average of 661 converts and 270 children of record each day, from which only a minority go on to experience meaningful church activity. The Assemblies of God are growing at approximately 10% per year, or over three times the growth rate of the LDS Church, while the Seventh-day Adventists report growth two to three times LDS rates at 5.6-8% per year."

Only Four Million active mormons worldwide

"While the Church makes no claims about member activity rates and no official reports of LDS activity rates are published, the Encyclopedia of Mormonism notes: "Attendance at sacrament meeting varies substantially. Canada, the South Pacific, and the United States average between 40 percent and 50 percent. Europe and Africa average about 35 percent. Asia and Latin America have weekly attendance rates of about 25 percent." While various idiosyncratic definitions of activity exist, the definition of members attending church weekly is the simplest and most meaningful. However, rates calculated by dividing church attendance by total membership may over-represent actual activity if nonmember visitors, small children, and other attendees are counted regardless of membership status. By multiplying the number of members in each area by the fractional activity and summating the data, one comes up with a worldwide LDS activity rate of approximately 35%, or approximately 4 million members. This is very similar to estimates published by the Associate Press in April 2003: 'While the church doesn't release statistics on church activity rates, some research suggests participation in the church is as low as 30 percent.' For comparison, Adventist News Network reported in 2001 that worldwide Seventh-day Adventist member retention rates had fallen from 81% in previous years to a still very impressive 78% at present."

Mormonism not sustaining growth from within

"Only about four million of the 11.3 million LDS members worldwide are active, and therefore likely to raise their children in the Church. Fractional annual proportional increases in LDS children of record relative to growth rates of healthy populations around the world correlate closely with low activity rates, suggesting that a large majority of inactive members raise their children outside of the church. Second, birth rates have declined substantially among the lifetime North American LDS members that have traditionally constituted the core membership of the LDS faith. Active LDS in the US average about three children per family, which represents a large decline from twenty years ago. A fertility rate of 2.1 children per couple is required for population replacement. With only 22% of Latter-day Saints born to active families in the U.S. remaining active lifelong and another 44% returning to the Church after periods of inactivity, the natural growth of Latter-day Saints in the U.S. appears to be below the level required even to sustain a stable population."

Lower levels of temple marriages

"The Encyclopedia of Mormonism notes: "The percentage of adults in a temple marriage varies from about 45 percent in Utah to less than 2 percent in Mexico and Central America... For all of South America, with 2.25 million members, less than 1.8% of the total adult membership has been married in the temple." This is a significant finding, since approximately 35% of all LDS members live in Latin America. Sociologist Tim Heaton notes that "Mexico saints have fewer children than the national average." Difficulty in generating new LDS families through temple marriages has been a chronic problem for the church, especially outside of North America, where many young people marry outside of the Church or remain unmarried."

Decline in new church units not because of unit size changes

"In 2002, LDS unit growth fell further to 0.22%, less than one-seventh of the annual rate of world population growth. Those who insist that the low number of new LDS units being formed is a result of policy changes influencing unit size are uninformed: the average number of LDS members per unit has remained relatively stable, going from 439 per unit in 1973 to 431.7 in 1991 and 437 in 2001."

Hinckley lied about the numbers

"In 1998, President Gordon B. Hinckley stated: “We are experiencing a combined growth of converts and natural increase of some 400,000 a year. Every single year that is the equivalent of 160 new stakes of 2,500 people each.” This statement has been widely quoted as evidence of the Church’s rapid growth. In fact, the Church has never yet experienced a net gain of 400,000 members in a single year, nor has there ever been a year in the history of the Church when 160 or more stakes were formed. The highest stake gains ever were of 142 in 1995 and 146 in 1996, which were up from annual gains of 32-78 over the preceding decade. Over the most recent five-year period for which data are available (1998-2003), the Church gained a total of 119 stakes, or an average of only 24 stakes per year. The low number of congregations and stakes being formed reflects fractional retention of converts."

LDS congregational growth in perspective

"In comparison to the 26,670 congregations serving the 12.256 million nominal LDS members, the Seventh-day Adventist Church had 12.894 million baptized adult members in 117,020 Sabbath Schools (congregations) meeting in 53,502 churches, while the Jehovah's Witnesses with 6.5 million members list 96,894 congregations in their August 2004 membership annual report. This is not because LDS congregations are particularly large, but because the great majority of LDS members on the rolls are inactive. While on paper the LDS Church appears to be roughly the same size as the Seventh-day Adventist church in terms of members, and much larger than the Jehovah's Witness organization, in reality, the latter two organizations are both far larger in terms of the total number of committed, active, and contributing members."

How are TBMs reacting to the truth about church growth?

Subject:	How are TBMs reacting.....doesn't bother them at all.
Date:	Jul 30 12:15
Author:	rmw

Some of my TBM friends say that the "true" church was NEVER meant to be large. Only the "elect" find the true gospel of Jesus Christ. The LDS church will always be small because "straight is the gate, and narrow is the way, which leadeth unto life, and FEW there be that find it. " FEW! And those few are the elect members of the LDS church.

So the low numbers don't bother them at all. In fact, it actually strengthens them knowing that the prophesies are coming true. In the latter days "evil" will spread throughout the world. Those "few" saints who can stand fast to their faith and "endure" will be those exalted in the Celestial Kingdom. This is a cleansing period. The weak fall by the wayside. The strong remain faithful. By remaining within the fold while many around are failing, they will achieve a greater reward in the Celestial Kingdom.

So, let the numbers decline. It just means more for the few who actually make it.

Subject:	Actually TBMs like to play it both ways . . .
Date:	Jul 31 01:45
Author:	Timmy Teaboy

If they think they can impress someone with the size of the Church, they'll emphasize the notion that the gospel is rolling forth like a great stone and the Kingdom of God (aka, the COJCOLDS) is growing like crazy.

But if someone knows enough to call them on the BS and can answer back with the statistics showing the true story of a stagnant/declining Church, then they will play the elite, "many are called, but few are chosen" card.

Subject:	Re: More on REAL LDS growth numbers...
Date:	Jul 30 12:29
Author:	Mc Realestate

So now the question is who would want to buy all the mc temples when the church needs to start divesting itself of some of it's real estate holdings due to declining membership and tithing income?

Subject:	Church will always be financially solvent.
Date:	Jul 30 12:55
Author:	rmw

Tithing is less than 10% of the church's income. They are one of the largest private real estate holders in the world. They are heavily invested in the stock market. Their investment income far exceeds donation income. Real Estate investments are booming right now. Stock market traditionally does well over the long term.

LDS Church has it financially made.

If you want to be a member of a "rich" church, the LDS church is the one to join.

Subject:	Re: More on REAL LDS growth numbers...
Date:	Jul 30 12:57
Author:	Bryan

Actually, I think that the land under SOME of the temples would be worth a lot of money. For example, the land under the Oakland Temple (California, USA) is probably worth many millions of dollars. Other temples, like the NZ temple that's out in the boonies, aren't worth that much, and will probably just be abandoned.

Subject:	Temple land is nothing. Try 228,000 acres in Nebraska and other places
Date:	Jul 30 13:15
Author:	rmw

From the beginning, the LDS church has been acquiring land. They are one of the largest private land owners in the United States. When most people think of "land" they think of the land LDS buildings are built upon. Yes, that is some land, but the LDS church has invested in very large pieces of real estate throughout the world.

An example recently is the parcel they purchased in Nebraska of 88,000 acres. This brings their land holding in Nebraska alone to over 200,000 acres.

Take Florida, where the LDS church owns the world's largest beef ranch at over 310,000 acres. That land alone is worth over 1 billion dollars.

Take Beneficial Life Insurance -- which they own. Net worth about 1.6 billion.

They own the largest nut producing farm in America.

And on and on.

Believe me . . . they are not hurting financially no matter what tithing does.

I find it interesting that many people -- including members of the LDS church -- don't realize how large the holdings are of the LDS church.

Do they not realized, that the purpose of the church beginning in the 1840's was to aquire (takeover) land and institute a theo-democracy in the U.S. and the world?

This acquisition of land has been going on for over 150 years. Today, the church continues to financially grow via real estate and stock investments and continues to purchase more and more land.

Some were surprised to hear that the church was spending 1 billion on Salt Lake City real estate. This just after they bought huge chunks of land in other states. This during a time when membership is declining. Does this sound like a church who is in financial trouble? Obviously not. They can spend that one billion without even selling off other land or investments or using any current "tithing" income. They probably made that much "profit" on their stock investments over the last couple of years. And, remember, they're tax exempt!

So as membership declines, will they need to "sell off" land in order to stay solvent. NO! In fact, declining membership actually "decreases" their operating expenses. Tithing is a drop in the bucket. They will keep investing and accumulating wealth. Those that remain in the church will be part of one of the wealthiest organizations in the world.

Subject:	I'd think most of their land is not income-producing, but is instead
Date:	Jul 30 18:05
Author:	Mark (was "Still Active")

income draining - property taxes, maintenance, etc. - that has to be paid out of current income (whether from current tithing or other investments). Granted if they sold a lot of the land it'd be worth a lot, but they can only sell land with meeting houses, temples, etc., when shrinkage in a given area gets to the point that they're no longer needed.

It'd be interesting to see a financial statement for the Church. If there are a million adult members with full-time jobs who are full tithe-payers who make an average of $25,000 per year, the annual tithing revenues would be $2.5 billion. Don't know what their expenses are, and also don't know what the size of other income they have from investments, etc. would be, but it ought to be interesting.

Re tax-exempt: I'd think Church-owned businesses such as Bonneville International and Beneficial Life would be taxable corporations.

Subject:

How does the LYING affect TBM's? Guess the same answer! afterall it is lying for the lord! nt

Subject:	I think it comes down to this philosophy.
Date:	Jul 30 12:46
Author:	activejackmormon

Exponential growth in the church would be evidence that the Lord's word is moving forth to every nation and people. A drop in growth shows that the forces of evil in these latter days is suppressing the lord's work. Few hold on to the iron rod and the great and spacious building is expanding.

Tails I win, heads you lose. That is how TBMs handle the bad news.

Subject:	Declining convert rates despite new markets.
Date:	Jul 30 12:55
Author:	Stray Mutt

After dropping its racist policies, the church moved into Africa. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the church moved into Eastern Europe and some former Soviet states. And, yet the numbers go down. Bigger customer base, fewer sales, decreased customer loyalty.

Subject:

Great stuff! It'd be nice to see a news article that really lays out the facts ala your post here n/t

Subject:

Daaaayyyyaaammmmm, you nailed it again broth'a Decon! THANK YOU! nt

Subject:

Deconstructor, thanks so much for this post--I appreciate your time and research. n/t

Subject:	All is well in Zion.
Date:	Jul 30 20:59
Author:	Dagny

>How are TBMs reacting to the truth about church growth?

It's frustrating. There is complete and utter silence on the global growth topic around the LDS circles here. However another new LDS church just completed in my neighborhood is opening its doors. Everyone is abuzz. The groundbreaking for the new Rexburg temple was today.

All is well in Zion!

Subject:	Re: All is well in Zion.
Date:	Jul 30 21:23
Author:	Adios

There will always be new chapels and stake centers built in the brand new burbs where the morgbots flock. They just get on with their lives and forget about all those inner city neighborhoods with chapel closures. The morg is always moving away from diversity towards homogeneity and all is once again well in Zion.

I don't think TBMs give a rat's ass about reality. They're living in a carefully managed fantasy world.

Subject:	The people who stay members
Date:	Jul 30 22:47
Author:	Glo

may be part of a very wealthy church but what good does it do them?

It's not like the Mormon church shares profits with the members who pay tithes every month. People are just being sucked dry financially, that's all.

See related topic: 158 The Fastest Growing Church?

Recovery from Mormonism - The Mormon Church www.exmormon.org

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