Posted by njili on November 25, 1998 at 08:28:08:
In Reply to: misunderstand - reply posted by Pohl on November 24, 1998 at 22:37:08:
: For example, I'm saying, using this analogy, what are the odds of any person winning the lottery this year 100 percent because someone wins all the time throughout the year.
: Then he is saying what are the odds of Linda winning the lottery this year. Now her odds could be 1 in a million.
: My point is that he is comparing apples and oranges.
: Another example, I say what are the odds of spontaeous generation.
: He's saying, what are the odds of spontaneous generation for a molecule with a DNA pattern of bla bla bla.
: Well he is comparing two different things.
No Pohl, you dont see what I mean. You're starting from nowhere and saying "what are the odds of Linda winning the lottery?" and finding the odds to be very slight. But we're not starting from nowhere when we discuss the existence of life on this planet .. We HAVE life on this planet. It's a given. In your lottery analogy, it's as though I gave a party exclusively for lottery winnners name Linda. THEN, what are the chances that any person in the party room would be a lottery winner, and named Linda. My answer is 1 in 1 or 'unity'. If you made the party requirements 'people who have won the lottery twice' - then, for the party to be (exist) requires that someone has won the lottery twice. Make it 'won the party 17 times' and given that the party is going on (life), the odds are 1 in 1 that someone won the lottery 17 times. Require that all 17 winnings be on the 7th day of the 7th month .. and given the fact that the party exists, the chances that someone won 17 lotteries, each on July 7th, are 1 in 1.
In your second example ... we HAVE the DNA with the pattern 'blah blah blah'. Without the life we have on this planet the odds, as you say, would be small of it ever developing ... but we're starting with the fact that intelligent life exists and that it's DNA pattern IS 'blah blah blah'...
I'm assuming there are no party crashers, just as I'm assuming we are alive. We could all be the figment of something's imagination (which isn't alive).